Predictions

What the prediction markets expect, all in one place: the odds traders on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com give elections, the Fed, games, coins, culture and world events, where the money is going, what moved and the news behind it.

Prices read just now
The Fed's next decisionFed maintains rate85%Fed decision in Oct 2026?Senate controlDemocratic Party63%Which party will win the U.S. Senate?The midtermsDemocrats Sweep63%Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsHouse controlDemocratic Party90%Which party will win the U.S. House?President in 2028JD Vance20%Presidential Election Winner 2028On the world stageOctober 2265%US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?BitcoinEven-odds high$85,469What price will Bitcoin hit in October?RecessionYes7%US recession by end of 2026?The big championshipKimi Antonelli98%F1 Drivers' ChampionAwards seasonThe Odyssey45%Oscar Winner: Best PictureThe AI raceGoogle71%Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Trending now

Leaderboard ›
Elections › President 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

16%Gavin Newsom
  • Gavin Newsom16%▼ 1
  • Jon Ossoff15%▲ 1
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15%
  • Kamala Harris7%
49 more
  • Josh Shapiro6%
  • Pete Buttigieg5%
  • Andy Beshear3%
  • James Talarico3%
  • Mark Kelly2%
  • Wes Moore2%
  • Raphael Warnock2%
  • Rahm Emanuel2%
  • Bernie Sanders2%
  • Ro Khanna1%
  • J.B. Pritzker1%
  • Chelsea Clinton1%
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Cory Booker1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer1%
  • Jon Stewart1%
  • Chris Murphy<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Chris Van Hollen<1%
  • Mark Cuban<1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Roy Cooper<1%
  • Hunter Biden<1%
  • Stephen A. Smith<1%
  • Gina Raimondo<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Jared Polis<1%
  • Barack Obama<1%
  • Hillary Clinton<1%
  • Phil Murphy<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • Jasmine Crockett<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Mitch Landrieu<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • John Fetterman<1%
  • Liz Cheney<1%
  • George Clooney<1%
  • MrBeast<1%
  • Oprah Winfrey<1%
  • Andrew Yang<1%
  • Beto O’Rourke<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Graham Platner<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
Elections › President 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

44%J.D. Vance
  • J.D. Vance44%▼ 3
  • Marco Rubio15%▲ 1
  • Ron DeSantis3%▲ 1
  • Tucker Carlson3%
39 more
  • Ted Cruz2%
  • Donald Trump2%
  • Donald Trump Jr.2%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Thomas Massie1%
  • Brian Kemp1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
  • Josh Hawley<1%
  • Rand Paul<1%
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Katie Britt<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • Nikki Haley<1%
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Byron Donalds<1%
  • Elise Stefanik<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Kristi Noem<1%
  • Mike Pence<1%
  • Steve Bannon<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Joe Kent<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • John McEntee<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • Matt Gaetz<1%
  • John Thune<1%
  • Tom Brady<1%
  • Erika Kirk<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
Sports › Soccer

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

23%Barcelona
  • Barcelona23%
  • Paris Saint-Germain15%
  • Arsenal13%
  • Bayern Munich13%
32 more
  • Real Madrid10%
  • Manchester City6%
  • Liverpool4%
  • Atlético Madrid2%
  • Inter Milan2%
  • Manchester United1%
  • Aston Villa1%
  • Real Betis1%
  • Roma1%
  • Borussia Dortmund1%
  • Como1%
  • Villarreal1%
  • VfB Stuttgart1%
  • Sporting CP1%
  • Napoli1%
  • RB Leipzig<1%
  • Porto<1%
  • Lens<1%
  • Galatasaray<1%
  • Fenerbahçe<1%
  • Bodø/Glimt<1%
  • Lille<1%
  • PSV Eindhoven<1%
  • Club Brugge<1%
  • Shakhtar Donetsk<1%
  • Feyenoord<1%
  • Slavia Prague<1%
  • Slovan Bratislava<1%
  • AEK Athens<1%
  • LASK<1%
  • Viking<1%
  • Sabah<1%

Today's biggest games

All sports ›

Biggest moves today

All movers ›
# Market Leading Day Today Decided
1 Paris curfew announced by...?Europe · Polymarket October 19 >99% October 19 ▲ 99 $368K Closes Oct 31
2 Which countries will qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? (2028)More sports · Kalshi Brazil 99% Australia ▲ 98 $2.4K Closes Aug 1, 2028
3 College Football: Top 25 Ranked Teams on Oct 25 AP Poll (Top 25 - Oct 25, 2026)College football · Kalshi Florida 100% Nebraska ▼ 95 $3.7K Closes Nov 17
4 The Cheesecake Factory comparable restaurant sales in Q3 (comparable restaurant sales in Q3 2026)Companies · Kalshi Median 9.67% Above 12% ▲ 93 $10.8K Closes Feb 23, 2027
5 Highest temperature in Moscow on October 19?Daily weather · Polymarket 12°C >99% 12°C ▲ 92 $26K Result pending
6 Pro Football: Team Wins in First 12 Weeks (Week 12 2026-27)NFL · Kalshi Baltimore: 5+ wins in first 12… 97% Kansas City: 11 wins… ▼ 91 $3.3K Closes Dec 8
7 How low will ZEC get in October?Other coins · Kalshi Below $910.00 36% Below $550.00 ▼ 90 $14.1K Closes Oct 31
8 How high will ZEC get in October?Other coins · Kalshi Above $1,860.00 63% Above $1,690.00 ▲ 88 $25.6K Closes Oct 31

The outcome that moved most in each market over the last 24 hours, in percentage points. Markets closing within a day and thin ones are left out.

Decided in the next three days

Calendar ›
Politics › Trump administration

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?

87%Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times
  • Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times87%▲ 4
  • Transgender 5+ times78%▲ 12
  • Russia / Ukraine75%▲ 6
19 more
  • Ass74%▲ 12
  • SI / Super Intelligence74%▲ 1
  • Drag Show71%▲ 2
  • Animal65%▼ 16
  • America First / Gulf of America63%▲ 5
  • Hormuz / Blockade63%
  • Fertilizer / Rural60%▼ 4
  • Hell 15+ times57%▲ 5
  • Fentanyl / Deport / Deported49%▲ 19
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence42%▼ 3
  • Tax 33+ times41%▼ 5
  • Bull / Bullshit40%
  • Star40%▲ 3
  • Data Center / Electric / Electricity40%▲ 6
  • Regulation / Regulatory33%▼ 4
  • Maduro25%▼ 9
  • Gay / Palestine25%▲ 4
  • Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency2%
  • -No Qualifying Event-1%

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.