Fed Decision in January?

Polymarket Economy › The Fed Closes Jan 27, 2027 · $12.3K today · $909K traded · $122K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

68%No change

No change68%
25 bps increase28%
50+ bps increase1%
25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease1%

How the odds have moved

No change: 64% on Oct 20, 68% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
No change	68%	67¢	69¢	$1.45	$22K
25 bps increase	28%	28¢	29¢	$3.45	$285K
50+ bps increase	1%	1¢	2¢	$66.67	$101K
25 bps decrease	1%	1¢	1¢	$83.33	$135K
50+ bps decrease	1%	1¢	1¢		$168K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Crypto.com

Fed Decision in January?Cut 50+ bpPolymarket 1%Crypto.com 3%2 pts apart

Fed Decision in Jan 2027

66%0bps (Unchanged)

0bps (Unchanged)66%
Hike <=25bps28%
Cut >25bps3%
Cut <=25bps3%

1 more

Hike >25bps3%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Kalshi

Fed decision in Jan 2027?HoldKalshi 64%Polymarket 68%4 pts apart

Fed decision in Jan 2027?

64%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate64%▲ 1
Hike 25bps32%▲ 1
Hike >25bps3%▲ 1
Cut 25bps2%

1 more

Cut >25bps1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

Search ›

Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookThe Epoch Times · 5 h agoPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false…
Can the Federal Reserve Keep Rates High Without Breaking Something?CryptoPotato · 2 h agoAlthough the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting, the bigger problem remains. Inflation is still stubborn, oil is well above $100, and US borrowing costs are…
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseThe Motley Fool · 9 h agoHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial…
Ethereum Faces Downside Pressure as Arthur Hayes Sells Holdings Ahead of Make-or-Break Federal Reserve MeetingCoinIdol · 8 h agoEthereum has slipped back toward the $2,350 to $2,380 range, dragged down in part by high-profile asset dumps from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, while Bitcoin tests vital support at $80,500. One of the primary catalysts driving social…
Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekClinton Herald · 33 h agoA key update on inflation and its impact on consumer confidence, economic growth and interest rate policy will fill a busy calendar this week along with more big earnings reports. They all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm…
September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbParameter · 15 h agoU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesFXStreet · 2 days agoTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in…
Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingPine Bluff Commercial · 2 days agoThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704…
The Federal Reserve At A Time Of UncertaintySeeking Alpha · 2 days agoEconomic uncertainty has increased on several fronts. That has made it even more difficult than before for the Fed to forecast the path of inflation and employment. Read more here... - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been consistently clear…
The Federal Reserve's Latest October Inflation Forecast Has Arrived, and It's Terrible News for Wall StreetThe Motley Fool · 2 days agoYear four of Wall Street's bull market didn't disappoint. The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.02%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.21%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -2.60%) to…
Brent Crude Tops $100 as Markets Await Federal Reserve September Meeting MinutesParameter · 2 days agoUS stock futures showed little directional conviction Wednesday morning as market participants positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting readout. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped marginally into negative…
Federal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hikeING THINK · 2 days agoDespite hot inflation prints in September and the Fed having signalled that further action to tame inflation will likely be needed, markets and economists are united in expecting the central bank to leave interest rates on hold at the 28…

Related markets

All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

76%25 bps increase

25 bps increase76%▲ 2
No change20%
50+ bps increase3%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in October?

94%No change

No change94%
25 bps increase5%▲ 1
50+ bps increase<1%

2 more

25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.04median

-0.5020.5

Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31

Economy › The Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

73%Hike–Pause–Hike

Hike–Pause–Hike73%▼ 3
Hike–Pause–Pause22%▲ 1
Hike–Hike–Hike3%

2 more

Other1%
Hike–Hike–Pause1%

Economy › The Fed

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

78%chance▲ 3

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%

10 more

3 (75 bps)<1%
4 (100 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJan 27, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$909K

Today$12.3K

This week$297K

At stake$122K

In the news67 headlines today, 1,087 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.805+0.78%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,623.68−0.52%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it4.032+0.25%
10Y Yield^TNX · moves with it4.988+0.71%
IEFIEF · moves with it91.05−0.16%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.50−0.02%
SPYSPY · moves with it759.97−0.52%
TLTTLT · moves with it81.34−0.49%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions