Predictions odds Where the S&P 500, stocks, oil and gold finish, earnings, IPOs and deals: each market beside the price it is about.
% US Dec
835 open markets · $1.7M traded today
Anthropic 76% ▲ 2 Rippling 11% ▲ 3 Celonis 9% ▲ 1 Discord 6% 25 more Ledger 6% Freddie Mac 5% ▲ 1 Revolut 4% Perplexity 4% Remote 4% Applied Intuition 3% Fannie Mae 3% OpenAI 3% Canva 3% Ripple Labs 3% Databricks 3% Anduril 3% Anysphere (Cursor) 3% ByteDance 2% Stripe 2% Ramp 2% Mistral AI 2% Anduril Industries 2% Waymo 2% Epic Games 2% WHOOP 1% Vanta 1% Glean 1% Brex 1% Deel <1%
Perplexity AI 11% Viking Therapeutics 11% PayPal 10% MGM Resorts 8% 10 more Zoom Video Communications 6% Brown-Forman 6% GitLab 6% Snapchat 5% BP 5% Lovable 4% Nebius Group 2% Anthropic 2% Ubisoft 2% OpenAI 1%
October 31, 2026 <1% November 15, 2026 11% ▲ 3 November 30, 2026 64% ▼ 3 December 15, 2026 76% ▼ 1 1 more
March 31, 2027 17% ▼ 2 December 31 17%
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $104 and as low as $93.10 .
Reaches $100 86% Reaches $105 41% Reaches $110 17% Falls to $95 64% Falls to $90 28% Falls to $85 12% Already reached: ↑ $90, ↑ $95, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↑ $90
December 31, 2026 5% March 31, 2027 20% June 30, 2027 34%
NVIDIA 73% ▲ 7 Apple 25% ▼ 2 Alphabet 2% Microsoft <1% 4 more SpaceX <1% Tesla <1% Saudi Aramco <1% Amazon <1%
No IPO by December 31, 2026 97% 1.5T+ 1% <500B 1% 750B–1T 1% 3 more 500–750B <1% 1T–1.25T <1% 1.25T–1.5T <1%
SpaceX 69% ▲ 6 Anthropic 30% ▼ 4 OpenAI <1% ByteDance <1% 8 more Stripe <1% Databricks <1% SHEIN <1% Waymo <1% Revolut <1% Discord <1% Perplexity AI <1% Kraken <1%
$1.75–$2.0T 25% $2.0–$2.25T 21% ▲ 2 $1.5–$1.75T 17% ▼ 2 $1.25–$1.5T 8% 6 more $2.25–$2.5T 8% ▼ 2 <$1.25T 7% ▲ 1 No IPO by December 31, 2027 4% ▼ 2 $3.0T+ 4% $2.5–$2.75T 4% $2.75–$3.0T 2%
Reaches $4,500 50% Reaches $5,000 11% Reaches $6,000 5% Falls to $3,500 10% Falls to $3,000 4% Falls to $2,500 3%
Reaches $115 37% Reaches $120 28% Reaches $125 23%
October 31 >99% December 31 >99%
December 31, 2026 8% June 30, 2027 20% ▲ 3
S&P 500 70% ▲ 2 Bitcoin 18% Gold 6% ▼ 2
1.5T+ 40% ▼ 5 No IPO by December 31, 2027 25% ▲ 1 1.25T–1.5T 10% ▲ 2 1T–1.25T 6% ▲ 1 3 more 750B–1T 3% <500B 3% 500–750B 2% ▲ 1
$57.49 $117.99
Median $98.08 Middle half $93.09 – $103.32
1.8T+ 63% ▲ 5 1.5–1.8T 21% ▼ 3 1.2–1.5T 6% ▲ 1 No IPO by December 31, 2027 4% ▼ 1 3 more 0.9–1.2T 2% ▼ 3 0.6–0.9T 1% <0.6T 1%
December 31, 2026 7% March 31, 2027 11% June 30, 2027 23% December 31, 2027 62% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prices these markets are about All › Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .
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