Track Record

Are prediction markets right? When the markets said 70%, how often did it happen? Every outcome of every market 4Conservative followed to its result counts once, at the chance traders gave it the day before it closed.

Markets settled1,5193,846 outcomes
The favorite won72%of 1,272 markets with one
Brier score0.1480 is perfect, 0.25 a coin flip

Calibration

0% 0% 20% 20% 40% 40% 60% 60% 80% 80% 100% 100% Priced 0–10% (average 3%): happened 2% of 860 times Priced 10–20% (average 15%): happened 15% of 519 times Priced 20–30% (average 25%): happened 26% of 402 times Priced 30–40% (average 35%): happened 36% of 416 times Priced 40–50% (average 45%): happened 47% of 370 times Priced 50–60% (average 55%): happened 52% of 341 times Priced 60–70% (average 65%): happened 67% of 305 times Priced 70–80% (average 74%): happened 77% of 223 times Priced 80–90% (average 84%): happened 83% of 151 times Priced 90–100% (average 95%): happened 94% of 259 times The market's chance a day before How often it happened
Markets priced it Outcomes Average chance Happened
0–10% 860 3% 2%
10–20% 519 15% 15%
20–30% 402 25% 26%
30–40% 416 35% 36%
40–50% 370 45% 47%
50–60% 341 55% 52%
60–70% 305 65% 67%
70–80% 223 74% 77%
80–90% 151 84% 83%
90–100% 259 95% 94%

A perfectly calibrated market sits on the dashed line: things it priced at 70% happen 70% of the time. Each dot is a tenth of the scale; its size, how many outcomes it holds.

By topic

Outcomes Brier Favorite won
Sports 3,658 0.155 72% of 1,255
Culture 117 0.018 100% of 8
Crypto 24 0.049 0% of 1
Economy 18 0.023 100% of 3
Elections 13 0.001 100% of 1
Mentions 12 0.004 100% of 1

The Brier score is the average squared gap between the chance and what happened (1 if it did, 0 if not): lower is better.

By venue

Outcomes Brier Favorite won
Kalshi 3,846 0.148 —

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.