Politics odds

The White House, Congress, the courts and the policy fights: what traders expect Washington and the world's governments to do.

768 open markets · $716K traded today

Trending politics markets

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

84%Vladimir Putin
  • Vladimir Putin84%▼ 2
  • Mohammed bin Salman74%▼ 3
  • Kim Jong Un14%▲ 1
  • Aleksandr Lukashenko11%▼ 1
10 more
  • Changpeng Zhao11%
  • King Mohammed VI7%▼ 4
  • iShowSpeed5%▲ 1
  • Lai Ching-te5%▲ 1
  • MrBeast5%
  • Pope Leo XIV4%▼ 1
  • Nick Fuentes4%▲ 1
  • Yoon Suk Yeol3%
  • Jair Bolsonaro2%
  • Nicolás Maduro2%
PolymarketCloses Dec 31 · $25.1K today · $1.3M traded

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Jul 1, 2028even chance by
  • Before Nov 1, 20262%▲ 1
  • Before Dec 1, 20265%
  • Before Jan 1, 20279%▲ 1
  • Before Feb 1, 20279%▲ 1
13 more
  • Before Mar 1, 202714%
  • Before Apr 1, 202719%▼ 1
  • Before May 1, 202719%▼ 1
  • Before Jun 1, 202726%▼ 1
  • Before Jul 1, 202732%▼ 2
  • Before Aug 1, 202733%▼ 1
  • Before Sep 1, 202733%▼ 2
  • Before Oct 1, 202735%▼ 3
  • Before Nov 1, 202741%
  • Before Dec 1, 202741%▼ 1
  • Before Jan 1, 202845%▼ 2
  • Before Jul 1, 202850%▲ 1
  • Before Jan 1, 202956%▼ 1
KalshiFor Mar 17 · $11.7K today · $1.3M traded

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

71%Ric Grenell
  • Ric Grenell71%▲ 7
  • Susie Wiles39%▼ 3
  • Doug Collins31%▲ 1
  • Amy Gleason28%▼ 2
27 more
  • Pete Hegseth27%
  • Bill Pulte21%
  • Steve Witkoff20%▲ 1
  • Howard Lutnick19%▲ 1
  • Linda McMahon19%
  • Brooke Rollins18%▲ 1
  • Kash Patel17%▼ 1
  • Mike Huckabee16%
  • Tom Homan15%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%▼ 1
  • Peter Navarro14%▼ 1
  • Scott Turner14%
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Sean Duffy13%▼ 1
  • John Ratcliffe13%▼ 1
  • Jamieson Greer13%
  • Stephen Miller13%▼ 4
  • Doug Burgum13%▼ 1
  • Rodney Scott13%
  • Russell Vought12%▼ 1
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler12%
  • Brendan Carr11%
  • Steven Cheung11%
  • Marco Rubio9%▲ 1
  • Lee Zeldin7%▲ 2
  • Scott Bessent6%

Maduro Prison Time?

56%No prison time
  • No prison time56%▲ 1
  • 60+23%▼ 3
  • <207%
  • 40–605%
1 more
  • 20–403%
PolymarketCloses Dec 31, 2027 · $106 today · $925K traded

Will Trump be impeached? (Before 2028)

Aug 7, 2027even chance by
  • Before Jan 1, 20274%
  • Before Feb 1, 202717%▼ 1
  • Before Mar 1, 202728%▲ 2
  • Before Apr 1, 202735%▲ 5
6 more
  • Before May 1, 202744%▲ 5
  • Before Jun 1, 202747%▲ 6
  • Before Jul 1, 202749%▲ 7
  • Before Aug 1, 202749%▲ 1
  • Before Oct 1, 202765%▲ 9
  • Before Jan 1, 202865%
KalshiCloses Jan 1, 2028 · $11.2K today · $958K traded

Who will be arrested before 2027?

20%John Brennan
  • John Brennan20%
  • Mahmoud Khalil13%▼ 3
  • James Comey10%
  • Brandon Johnson8%▲ 1
20 more
  • Anthony Fauci8%
  • Tom Homan6%▲ 1
  • Pam Bondi5%
  • James Clapper5%▲ 1
  • Susan Rice5%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu5%▼ 1
  • Letitia James5%
  • Candace Owens4%
  • Lisa Cook4%
  • José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero3%▲ 1
  • Adam Schiff3%
  • Loretta Lynch2%
  • Gavin Newsom2%
  • Lee Jun-seok2%▼ 2
  • Kash Patel1%
  • Hillary Clinton1%
  • Barack Obama1%
  • John Kerry1%
  • Bill Clinton1%
  • Joe Biden1%
PolymarketCloses Dec 31 · $2.7K today · $513K traded

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.