2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $2.5K today · $278K traded · $188K at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

9.45%median

-100%100%

Median 9.45%Middle half 7.08% – 11.61%

How the odds have moved

Median: 8.79% on Oct 20, 9.45% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Republicans win	6%		5¢	6¢	$16.13	1.1M
Democrats, 0 to 2%	2%		2¢	2¢	$45.45	379.9K
Democrats, 2 to 4%	3%		3¢	3¢	$31.25	298.0K
Democrats, 4 to 6%	7%		7¢	7¢	$15.15	196.1K
Democrats, 6 to 8%	14%		14¢	15¢	$6.67	230.0K
Democrats, 8 to 10%	25%		25¢	26¢	$3.85	208.6K
Democrats, 10 to 12%	22%	▼ 1	22¢	23¢	$4.35	209.0K
Democrats, 12 to 14%	11%		11¢	12¢	$8.33	246.9K
Democrats, 14 to 16%	5%	▼ 1	5¢	5¢	$20.83	229.5K
Democrats, 16% and above	5%		5¢	5¢	$21.28	233.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Midterms, House, Generic

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White House takes new actions ahead of midterm electionsNBC News · 2 days agoNBC News Catastrophic flooding prompts rescues Good News: Unlikely friendship leads to trip of a lifetime White House takes new actions ahead of midterm elections All-out fight for critical battleground states ramps up Inside the battle…
‘Brilliant James’ helped return Trump to the White House. Can he conquer the midterms?the Guardian · 40 h agoJames Blair’s data-driven approach delivered victory in 2024 but president’s unpopularity and idiosyncratic style do not bode well this time They are both young, bald and fathers of four. They are also the brains behind Donald Trump. But…
Generic brain exercises may not help brain fog as much as you think, expert saysFox News · 30 h agoEstrogen loss during menopause can affect verbal memory, processing speed and focus. A neurologist shares why targeted brain exercises may be more helpful than random cognitive games for addressing specific challenges. Generic brain…
Vance front and center in Republican midterms push – is this a dry run for a White House bid?the Guardian · 3 days agoVice-president’s visibility has risen as Trump’s popularity wanes, but path to inherit Maga throne is more complicated than it may seem A day after JD Vance suggested Donald Trump would endorse him if he runs for president, the…
Countdown on until 2026 midterm electionCBS News · 15 h agoCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Countdown on until 2026…
CNN Poll of Polls: Generic midterm ballotCNN · 5 days agoCNN CNN Poll of Polls: Generic midterm ballot The “generic ballot” is a type of survey question that asks voters to choose which party they prefer in the US House of Representatives. Taken as a whole, generic ballot polling provides a…
Mike Johnson asks Trump for more midterm money as Republicans seek to avert disaster in House racesCNN · 3 days agoIn the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this…
President Trump continues midterm election ralliesCBS News · 27 h agoCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm
Early voting surges as Trump launches midterm blitzFox News · 17 h agoHistorian Tom Del Beccaro analyzes the surge in early voting numbers across Texas and other key states. He also discusses President Donald Trump's midterm campaign strategy as candidates enter the final stretch. Early voting surges as…
2026 Midterms: Trump Attacks El-Sayed, Election LawsuitsFox News · 13 h agoPresident Donald Trump escalated attacks against Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as Republicans seek to hold the Senate, while legal fights over disputed ballots in California and Alaska raise fresh questions about election…
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganFox News · 38 h agoPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump…
Trump casts his midterm ballot early in FloridaNBC News · 33 h agoWEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at their West…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe Clerk of the House

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$278K (3,350,511 contracts)

Today$2.5K

This week$38.3K

At stake$188K

In the news725 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

Popular, Inc.BPOP · about the company160.41+0.73%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions