Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Polymarket Politics › Congress Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $435 today · $39K traded · $21.3K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

11%Thom Tillis

Thom Tillis11%
Kirsten Gillibrand9%▲ 1
Andy Kim9%▲ 1
Jacky Rosen7%
John Fetterman7%
Alex Padilla7%
Catherine Cortez Masto7%
Raphael Warnock7%
Mike Lee6%
Mark Warner6%
Josh Hawley6%
Rand Paul5%

3 more

Lisa Blunt Rochester4%▼ 1
Jerry Moran3%▼ 2
Ruben Gallego3%

How the odds have moved

Thom Tillis: 10% on Oct 20, 11% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Thom Tillis	11%		10¢	11¢	$9.09	$26.4K
Kirsten Gillibrand	9%	▲ 1	8¢	10¢	$10.00	$9.4K
Andy Kim	9%	▲ 1	9¢	9¢	$10.75	$4K
Jacky Rosen	7%		7¢	7¢	$13.51	$26.4K
John Fetterman	7%		7¢	7¢	$14.08	$13K
Alex Padilla	7%		7¢	7¢	$13.89	$19K
Catherine Cortez Masto	7%		7¢	7¢	$14.49	$23.2K
Raphael Warnock	7%		7¢	7¢	$14.29	$3.9K
Mike Lee	6%		6¢	7¢	$15.38	$61.7K
Mark Warner	6%		6¢	6¢	$16.95	$63.8K
Josh Hawley	6%		6¢	6¢	$17.86	$46.8K
Rand Paul	5%		4¢	6¢	$18.18	$40.2K
Lisa Blunt Rochester	4%	▼ 1	3¢	5¢	$20.00	$6.3K
Jerry Moran	3%	▼ 2	1¢	5¢	$21.28	$16.3K
Ruben Gallego	3%		1¢	5¢	$21.28	$29.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? (Before 2027)Jerry MoranKalshi 9%Polymarket 3%6 pts apart

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? (Before 2027)

9%Jerry Moran

Jerry Moran9%▲ 1
Mark Warner7%▼ 1
Lisa Blunt Rochester7%
Mike Lee6%

8 more

Kirsten Gillibrand5%
Ruben Gallego5%
Catherine Cortez Masto5%
Andy Kim5%
Josh Hawley4%▼ 1
Raphael Warnock4%▼ 1
Rand Paul4%▼ 1
Angela Alsobrooks2%▼ 1

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Clarity Act, Senators, Thom Tillis

Search ›

Transcript: Sen. Thom Tillis on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Oct. 25, 2026CBS News · 26 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 12:34 PM EDT / CBS News The following is the transcript of the interview with Sen. Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, that aired on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on Oct. 25, 2026. MARGARET BRENNAN: We…
Sen. Thom Tillis, Attorney General Todd Blanche and Gina Hinojosa set to appear on "Face the Nation"CBS News · 3 days agoSunday's "Face the Nation" is set to feature Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Attorney General Todd Blanche and Texas Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa. CBS News chief foreign affairs correspondent and "Face the…
Sen. Thom Tillis talks about the challenges of being in Congress during Trump's second termCNN · 4 days agoCNN Sen. Thom Tillis talks about the challenges of being in Congress during Trump’s second term In his new book, "How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents," GOP Sen. Thom Tillis calls voting to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of…
Thom Tillis Is Reminding People Why He Doesn't Deserve Another Term As a US Senatortownhall.com · 3 days agoThe crybaby caucus is loud and, blessedly, will be silenced, as Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) will not return next year. Both men have become insufferable. They’re not MAGA enough, so they ingratiate themselves with…
Retiring Republican Thom Tillis claims three senior officials are undermining Trump’s agenda and must be sacked to save the partyThe Mary Sue · 47 h agoSenator Thom Tillis is making waves again as he publicly calls for the termination of three high-ranking officials within the current administration. The Republican from North Carolina appeared on an episode of the talk show Straight…
XRP (XRP) Eyes $2 Milestone as CLARITY Act Vote ApproachesParameter · 25 h agoXRP maintains its position around the $1.42 level as market participants anticipate a potential breakout that could propel prices toward $1.60 and higher. This technical formation is capturing significant interest among analysts…
Democrats Block Clarity Act Amendment to Bar ConvictedCoinfomania · 2 days agoDemocrats voted against an amendment to the Clarity Act that would bar felons from crypto fundraising. Here's why this matters. Democrats blocked a provision to ban felons from raising money in crypto. Senator Lummis emphasized the…
Sen. Lummis: Failure to Pass CLARITY Act Now Means Crypto Regulation Waits Until 2030MoneyCheck · 33 h agoWyoming’s Senator Cynthia Lummis has issued an urgent call for Senate action on the CLARITY Act, cautioning that missing this legislative window could derail the crypto sector’s regulatory framework for half a decade. If the Clarity Act…
Democrats Vote Down Clarity Act, Limiting State AGs’Coinfomania · 3 days agoDemocrats voted against the Clarity Act, limiting state attorneys general's power to sue digital asset exchanges. The post Democrats Vote Down Clarity Act, Limiting State AGs’ appeared first on Coinfomania. The recent vote by Democrats…
U.S. Senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Adam Schiff Press Trump’s FDA On Plan To Mitigate Estrogen Patch Shortagegoldrushcam.com · 4 days agoOctober 22, 2026 - U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) has pressed the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its plan to mitigate the estradiol transdermal patch shortage, which is making it harder for women to manage symptoms of…
CLARITY Act News: Lummis Slams Democrats As Crypto Tax Reform Gains UrgencyCoinpedia Fintech News · 3 days agoWriter by choice, CryptoCurrency Writer, and Researcher by chance. Currently, focusing on financial news and analysis, as well as cryptocurrency news and data. One may not call me a crypto “Enthusiast” but trust me I'm getting there. The…
Cody Carbone Addresses Clarity Act’s Impact on CryptoCoinfomania · 3 days agoDigital Chamber's CEO discusses the Clarity Act and stablecoins on a podcast. Here's why clear legislation matters for crypto builders. Digital Chamber's CEO highlights the importance of the Clarity Act. Legislation aims to provide…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$39K

Today$435

This week$72.7K

At stake$21.3K

In the news30 headlines today, 896 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions