Fed Decision in October?
87%No change
- No change87%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase13%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Economy odds
The Fed's next moves, inflation, jobs, growth and recession, trade and tariffs: the market's read on the economy, beside the rates it moves.
The Fed's next meetings
Target range now 3.75–4.00%Cut Hold Hike
- Oct 28Hold 87%3.91%KalshiPolymarket
- Dec 9Hike 78%4.10%KalshiPolymarket
- Jan 27Hold 58%4.20%KalshiPolymarket
- Mar 17Hike 66%4.35%Kalshi
- Apr 28Hold 51%4.46%Kalshi
- Jun 9Hold 60%4.53%Kalshi
The chance of a cut, a hold or a hike at each meeting, Kalshi and Polymarket averaged where both list it, and the target-range midpoint those odds imply.
Trending economy markets
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%
- No change19%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
59%No change
- No change59%▼ 4
- 25 bps increase36%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
US recession by end of 2026?
7%chance
CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.23%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.23%Middle half 0.14% – 0.3%
CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
3.89%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.89%Middle half 3.79% – 4.06%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
79%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate79%▲ 2
- Hike 25bps15%▲ 3
- Cut >25bps4%▲ 4
- Hike >25bps4%▲ 4
1 more
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.29%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.29%Middle half 2.7% – 3.91%
CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)
3.85%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.85%Middle half 3.63% – 4.13%
Jobs numbers in October 2026?
72Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 72KMiddle half 16K – 104K
Recession in 2027?
21%chance
US real GDP growth in 2026?
2.24%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.24%Middle half 1.88% – 2.44%
CPI in December (Dec 2026)
0.16%median
-0.2%1%
Median 0.16%Middle half 0.07% – 0.42%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
51%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate51%▼ 7
- Hike 25bps43%▲ 21
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 2
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
CPI in November (Nov 2026)
0.18%median
-0.2%0.6%
Median 0.18%Middle half 0.01% – 0.31%
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
85%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate85%▲ 4
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 1
- Cut >25bps3%
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 4
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 5
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
82%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate82%▲ 6
- Cut 25bps7%
- Cut >25bps3%
- Hike 25bps3%▼ 6
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 7
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
65%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps65%▲ 17
- Fed maintains rate28%▼ 3
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 3
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 1
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
51%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate51%▼ 18
- Cut 25bps42%▲ 35
- Hike 25bps2%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 3
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 7
October Inflation US - Annual
3.71%median
3.15%4.35%
Median 3.71%Middle half 3.68% – 3.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.05%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.05%Middle half 0.79% – 3.17%
US real GDP growth in 2035?
1.99%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 1.99%Middle half 0.76% – 3.39%
US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.2%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.2%Middle half 1.11% – 3.1%
US real GDP growth in 2033?
2.12%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.12%Middle half 0.97% – 3.5%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.