10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 21, 2026?
5.11%median
4.98%5.3%
Median 5.11%Middle half 5.09% – 5.12%
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IEF IEF prediction markets
Every prediction market about IEF: its own price outlook, questions about it, and the ones that move it.
On what it tracks
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
5%Below 1.0%
0%4.8%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
26%Below 4.85%
4.8%5.13%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
39%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
5.03%median
4.99%5.11%
Median 5.03%Middle half 5% – 5.09%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
14%5.32%
5.29%5.65%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?
5.15%median
5.09%5.41%
Median 5.15%Middle half 5.15% – 5.22%
10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026
35.43%median
-40%80%
Median 35.43%Middle half 18.75% – 52%
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end? (Dec 31, 2026)
5.14%median
4.49%6.24%
Median 5.14%Middle half 4.88% – 5.57%
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?
5.1%median
4.89%5.25%
Median 5.1%Middle half 5.05% – 5.13%
How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
13%5.32% or above
5.3%5.59%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
5.4%median
5.24%5.54%
Median 5.4%Middle half 5.32% – 5.43%
Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
3%chance
Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026
43%Above .7%
0.6%1.1%
What moves it
Fed Decision in October?
86%No change
- No change86%
- 25 bps increase13%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in December?
78%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase78%▲ 1
- No change18%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase2%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
9 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in January?
60%No change
- No change60%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase37%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
70%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)70%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)21%
- 3 (75 bps)9%▼ 1
- 4 (100 bps)1%
1 more
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
81%chance▼ 1
Next Fed rate hike?
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%
- Before July 202896%▲ 1
- Before 202894%
- Before July 202790%▼ 3
1 more
- Before 202782%
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
2median
14
Median 2Middle half 2 – 2
Fed rate cut by...?
38%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting38%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting23%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting22%▼ 3
- March 2027 Meeting14%
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting4%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.12%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.12%Middle half 4.02% – 4.21%
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
3.89%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 3.89%Middle half 3.82% – 3.96%
Fed rate cut before 2027?
3%chance
Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026 FOMC)
75%Beth Hammack
- Beth Hammack75%▼ 5
- Lorie Logan48%
- Neel Kashkari42%▲ 6
- Michelle Bowman11%
8 more
- Anna Paulson8%
- Christopher Waller7%
- Michael Barr5%
- Kevin Warsh2%
- John Williams2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Philip Jefferson2%
- Jerome Powell1%
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
0.02median
-0.504.50
Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.56%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.56%Middle half 4.13% – 4.88%
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
81%chance▼ 3
US Fed Funds Target Rate (Oct 29, 2026)
3.76%median
1.13%4.63%
Median 3.76%Middle half 3.69% – 3.84%
October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
78%Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >078%▲ 4
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 011%▼ 1
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >09%
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 03%▲ 2
2 more
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0<1%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0<1%
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? (2026)
2%chance
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
86%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate86%▼ 5
- Cut 25bps7%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 1
- Hike 25bps2%
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 1
Fed median dot plot in December 2026
4.05%median
3.4%4.7%
Median 4.05%Middle half 4.01% – 4.1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%▼ 9
- Hike 25bps16%
- Cut >25bps4%
- Cut 25bps3%
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%
Next Fed rate cut?
88%Before 2029
- Before 202988%▼ 1
- Before July 202868%▼ 1
- Before 202850%▲ 2
- Before July 202724%▼ 1
1 more
- Before 20273%
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
53%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate53%
- Cut 25bps25%▼ 18
- Hike 25bps14%▲ 12
- Hike >25bps3%
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
64%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps64%
- Fed maintains rate31%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps2%
- Cut >25bps2%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
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