Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?

Kalshi Economy › The Fed Closes Dec 31 · $542 today · $286K traded · $12K at stake · prices read 13 min ago

The odds

0.02median

-0.504.50

Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28

How the odds have moved

Median: 0.02 on Oct 20, 0.02 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
0 cuts	96%	97¢	98¢	$1.02	291.1K
1 cut	1%	0¢	2¢	$45.45	122.7K
2 cuts	1%	0¢	2¢	$58.82	43.3K
3 cuts	1%	1¢	1¢	$100.00	32.1K
4 cuts	1%	1¢	1¢		23.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

Search ›

Could Donald Trump Save the Federal Reserve?The Epoch Times · 25 h agoSo who is Warsh? As an undergraduate at Stanford, he worked as a research assistant to Milton Friedman, and he has retained his teacher’s skepticism toward Federal Reserve overreach and intervention in financial markets. Friedman famously…
AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fightFinance & Commerce · 21 h agoExplore the BridgeTower Media network. 36 publications across 4 industries. AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fight Federal Reserve officials say rapid artificial intelligence investment by companies such as Amazon, Apple and…
Federal Reserve seen holding rates in October, then hiking in DecemberTU News · 5 h agoFederal Reserve policymakers are expected to pause on interest rates at their October meeting even as inflation remains elevated and economic growth stays firm. Economists surveyed this week increasingly see a December hike as the more…
Federal Reserve seen skipping Oct rate hike but hiking in Dec - Reuters pollYahoo Finance · 3 h agoInvesting.com - The Federal Reserve is set to keep interest rates steady at the central bank's next monetary policy meeting later this month, but raise borrowing costs once again in December, according to a Reuters poll released on…
Concept 31: The Federal Reserve StructureGeorgia Public Broadcasting · 34 h agoThe Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. It oversees the nation’s money supply (through monetary policy), processes payments, and supervises and regulates banks. The U.S. Congress created the Federal Reserve in 1913 in…
The Federal Reserve: What Has Already Been Priced In?Medium · 2 days agoOne of the recurring themes on Tech Trend Investments is the importance of understanding the relationship between monetary policy and financial markets. During the episode, Lizabeth and Joseph discussed how investors begin positioning…
The Federal Reserve Just Warned More Rate Hikes Are Likely Coming. History Has Good and Bad News for InvestorsThe Motley Fool · 7 h agoAnd the Fed just warned that more rate hikes are likely coming. Against this backdrop, history has good and bad news for investors. First, though, let's start with a summary of the market situation over the past few years. As mentioned…
Gold edges higher on softer oil; Fed rate outlook in focusCNBC · 37 h agoGold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices offered support, while investors assessed the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year and looked for fresh signals on the U.S. central bank's policy…
K.C. Federal Reserve ag survey is positiveBrownfield Ag News · 4 days agoThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has released results of its third quarter ag credit survey of ag bankers. As you might expect, it’s a very positive report. The survey showed that Tenth District farmland values hastened their climb…
Fed Minutes Show Another Rate Hike Is Likely This Year as Kevin Warsh's FOMC Battles Persistent Inflation. Here's Why That Signal Matters for Stocks and Bonds Heading Into Year-End.The Motley Fool · 8 h agoAccording to the latest meeting minutes released Oct. 7 by the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Kevin Warsh and the other central bankers are planning to hike interest rates again in 2026. The FOMC has two more…
Federal Reserve: US Loan Delinquencies Jump to 19.6%, Median Family Wealth Rises to $215,900Coinpaper · 4 days agoNearly 20% of indebted US families reported late loan payments, up from 12.2% in 2022, even as median household wealth rose to $215,900. Nearly one in five indebted American families reported falling behind on loan payments, according to…
Laurene Powell Jobs Invested $250 Million in David Ellison’s SkydanceVariety · 23 h agoBillionaire and philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs paid $250 million to acquire a stake in Skydance, the David Ellison-led company formed by the merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery. Powell Jobs, founder and president of…

Related markets

All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in October?

86%No change

No change86%▲ 2
25 bps increase13%▼ 1
25 bps decrease<1%

2 more

50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in January?

57%No change

No change57%▼ 5
25 bps increase38%▲ 4
50+ bps increase1%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%▼ 1
50+ bps decrease1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%

10 more

4 (100 bps)<1%
3 (75 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed decision in Jul 2027?

80%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate80%▲ 3
Hike 25bps15%▲ 2
Cut >25bps4%▲ 4

2 more

Cut 25bps2%▼ 2
Hike >25bps1%▲ 1

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

77%25 bps increase

25 bps increase77%▲ 1
No change19%
50+ bps increase3%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

69%2 (50 bps)

2 (50 bps)69%▲ 2
1 (25 bps)20%
3 (75 bps)10%

2 more

4 (100 bps)1%
5+ (125+ bps)<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Reserve

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$286K (513,100 contracts)

Today$542

This week$286K

At stake$12K

In the news152 headlines today, 1,917 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 0 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.947+0.37%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,720.06+0.38%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it4.082+0.17%
^TNX^TNX · moves with it
IEFIEF · moves with it
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.29−0.03%
SPYSPY · moves with it769.43+0.38%
TLTTLT · moves with it79.96+0.63%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.