The Fed odds

Every The Fed market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.

655 open markets · $2.1M traded today

The Fed's next meetings

Target range now 3.75–4.00%Cut Hold Hike

Oct 2886%13%Hold 86%3.91%Kalshi Polymarket
Dec 920%78%Hike 78%4.11%Kalshi Polymarket
Jan 2757%40%Hold 57%4.20%Kalshi Polymarket
Mar 1728%67%Hike 67%4.36%Kalshi
Apr 2847%48%Hike 48%4.47%Kalshi
Jun 961%34%Hold 61%4.54%Kalshi

The chance of a cut, a hold or a hike at each meeting, Kalshi and Polymarket averaged where both list it, and the target-range midpoint those odds imply.

Trending the fed markets

Fed Decision in October?

86%No change

No change86%▲ 2
25 bps increase13%▼ 1
25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps increase<1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease<1%

^FVX+0.14%^GSPC+0.29%

Fed Decision in December?

77%25 bps increase

25 bps increase77%▲ 1
No change19%▼ 1
50+ bps increase3%
25 bps decrease1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease<1%

^TNX-0.25%^IRX+0.17%

Fed Decision in January?

57%No change

No change57%▼ 5
25 bps increase37%▲ 2
50+ bps increase1%
25 bps decrease1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease1%

TLT+0.52%SPY+0.28%

Fed decision in Jul 2027?

80%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate80%▲ 3
Hike 25bps15%▲ 2
Cut >25bps4%▲ 4
Cut 25bps2%▼ 2

1 more

Hike >25bps2%▲ 2

^GSPC+0.29%^FVX+0.14%

Fed decision in Apr 2027?

43%Hike 25bps

Hike 25bps43%▲ 34
Fed maintains rate43%▼ 9
Cut 25bps3%▼ 1
Hike >25bps2%▼ 2

1 more

Cut >25bps1%

SHY-0.02%IEF+0.07%

Fed decision in Oct 2027?

89%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate89%▲ 17
Cut 25bps7%
Hike >25bps2%▼ 7
Cut >25bps2%▼ 1

1 more

Hike 25bps1%▼ 7

TLT+0.52%SPY+0.28%

Fed decision in Sep 2027?

85%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate85%▲ 4
Hike 25bps10%▼ 1
Cut >25bps3%▼ 2
Cut 25bps2%▼ 4

1 more

Hike >25bps2%▼ 5

^FVX+0.14%^GSPC+0.29%

Fed decision in Mar 2027?

65%Hike 25bps

Hike 25bps65%▲ 17
Fed maintains rate28%▼ 3
Cut 25bps2%▼ 1
Cut >25bps2%▼ 3

1 more

Hike >25bps2%▼ 1

TLT+0.52%SPY+0.28%

Fed decision in Dec 2027?

52%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate52%▼ 26
Cut 25bps39%▲ 35
Hike 25bps2%▼ 1
Hike >25bps2%▼ 3

1 more

Cut >25bps1%▼ 8

^FVX+0.14%TLT+0.52%

Fed decision in Jun 2027?

61%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate61%▲ 5
Hike 25bps32%▲ 4
Cut 25bps3%▼ 2
Cut >25bps2%▼ 5

1 more

Hike >25bps1%▼ 2

^IRX+0.17%^GSPC+0.29%

Fed decision in Jan 2028?

64%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate64%▲ 5
Cut 25bps10%▼ 1
Hike >25bps10%▼ 3
Hike 25bps9%▼ 2

1 more

Cut >25bps8%▲ 4

TLT+0.52%SPY+0.28%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%
4 (100 bps)<1%

9 more

3 (75 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

SPY+0.28%SHY-0.02%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.23%median

0.88%4.63%

Median 4.23%Middle half 4.14% – 4.33%

Fed rate cut by...?

50%July 2027 Meeting

July 2027 Meeting50%
June 2027 Meeting33%▲ 2
April 2027 Meeting29%
March 2027 Meeting14%▼ 1

3 more

January 2027 Meeting5%
December 2026 Meeting3%
October 2026 Meeting<1%

SHY-0.02%IEF+0.07%

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.03median

-0.5020.5

Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30

TLT+0.52%SPY+0.28%

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

4.36%high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 4.36%.

Reaches 4.25%80%
Reaches 4.5%12%
Reaches 4.75%7%

Falls to 3.25%2%
Falls to 3%2%
Falls to 2.75%2%

Already reached: ↓ 3.5%

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

68%2 (50 bps)

2 (50 bps)68%▲ 1
1 (25 bps)20%
3 (75 bps)10%
4 (100 bps)1%

1 more

5+ (125+ bps)<1%

TLT+0.52%SPY+0.28%

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

82%chance▲ 1

^GSPC+0.29%^FVX+0.14%

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

67%Hike–Pause–Hike

Hike–Pause–Hike67%
Hike–Pause–Pause18%
Hike–Hike–Hike10%
Hike–Hike–Pause3%▼ 1

1 more

Other2%

Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?

0.02median

-0.504.50

Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28

TLT+0.52%SPY+0.28%

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

4.12%median

2.5%5.5%

Median 4.12%Middle half 4.03% – 4.21%

^FVX+0.14%^GSPC+0.29%

Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?

4.42%median

-0.25%6%

Median 4.42%

TLT+0.52%SPY+0.28%

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

96%No change

No change96%▲ 1
Hike 25 bps4%▼ 1

Next Fed rate hike?

97%Before 2029

Before 202997%▲ 1
Before July 202895%▼ 1
Before 202894%
Before July 202793%▲ 1

1 more

Before 202782%▼ 1

TLT+0.52%SPY+0.28%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Biggest moves today

More ›

Fed decision in Apr 2027?Hike 25bps 43% ▲ 34

Prices these markets are about

All ›

Price it is about	Last	Today	Markets
S&P 500^GSPC	7,712.74	+0.29%	15
SPYSPY	768.60	+0.28%	15
TLTTLT	79.87	+0.52%	24
10Y Yield^TNX	5.123	−0.25%	14
IEFIEF	90.14	+0.07%	14
30Y Yield^TYX	5.438	−0.62%	10
5Y Yield^FVX	4.936	+0.14%	6
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury BondIEI	113.96	−0.04%	6
Yum! Brands, Inc.YUM	150.91	+0.72%	6
Nikkei 225^N225	64,075.42	−1.30%	2

Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.