How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
12%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
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5Y Yield ^FVX prediction markets
Every prediction market about 5Y Yield: its own price outlook, questions about it, and the ones that move it.
Where traders see 5Y Yield
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?
35%Below 4.65%
4.6%4.92%
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.17%median
4.95%5.4%
Median 5.17%
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?
4.89%median
4.67%5.05%
Median 4.89%Middle half 4.86% – 4.96%
How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
45%5.07% or above
5.05%5.36%
How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
4.88%median
4.76%4.9%
Median 4.88%
What moves it
Fed Decision in October?
88%No change
- No change88%
- 25 bps increase11%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
60%No change
- No change60%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase38%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in December?
78%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase78%▲ 1
- No change18%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
9 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.24 – 0.29
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
81%chance
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
70%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)70%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)20%
- 3 (75 bps)9%
- 4 (100 bps)1%
1 more
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Next Fed rate hike?
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%▼ 1
- Before July 202896%▲ 1
- Before July 202794%▲ 2
- Before 202894%▲ 1
1 more
- Before 202782%▲ 4
Fed rate cut by...?
52%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting52%▲ 2
- June 2027 Meeting35%▲ 4
- April 2027 Meeting34%▲ 4
- March 2027 Meeting13%▼ 2
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting7%▲ 2
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
2median
14
Median 2Middle half 2 – 2
SOFR for October 21, 2026
3.88%median
3.85%3.92%
Median 3.88%Middle half 3.88% – 3.88%
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
3.89%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 3.89%Middle half 3.82% – 3.96%
Fed rate cut before 2027?
3%chance
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.11%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.11%Middle half 4.02% – 4.21%
Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026 FOMC)
76%Beth Hammack
- Beth Hammack76%▼ 6
- Lorie Logan48%
- Neel Kashkari44%▲ 5
- Michelle Bowman9%▼ 2
8 more
- Anna Paulson8%▼ 1
- Christopher Waller7%
- Michael Barr5%
- Kevin Warsh2%
- John Williams2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Philip Jefferson2%
- Jerome Powell1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
62%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps62%
- Fed maintains rate29%▼ 1
- Cut 25bps6%▲ 5
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 1
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
0.02median
-0.504.50
Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28
October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
76%Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >076%▲ 3
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 014%▲ 3
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >07%▼ 2
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 02%▼ 1
2 more
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0<1%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0<1%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
55%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate55%▲ 21
- Hike 25bps33%▼ 18
- Cut 25bps6%▲ 3
- Cut >25bps4%▲ 2
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 1
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.54%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.54%Middle half 4.16% – 4.88%
US Fed Funds Target Rate (Dec 10, 2026)
3.96%median
0.88%4.88%
Median 3.96%Middle half 3.8% – 4.08%
Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?
4.25%median
-0.25%6.75%
Median 4.25%
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
53%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate53%
- Cut 25bps26%▼ 17
- Hike 25bps11%▲ 9
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 1
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
86%chance▲ 4
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
4.42%median
-0.25%6%
Median 4.42%
US Fed Funds Target Rate (Jan 28, 2027)
4.08%median
0.63%4.88%
Median 4.08%Middle half 3.96% – 4.25%
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? (2026)
2%chance
How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026)
1.67median
-0.505.50
Median 1.67Middle half 0.51 – 2.62
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
86%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate86%▲ 11
- Cut 25bps6%▼ 1
- Hike 25bps3%▲ 1
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 2
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%
US Fed Funds Target Rate (Oct 29, 2026)
3.76%median
1.13%4.63%
Median 3.76%Middle half 3.69% – 3.83%
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?
4%chance▲ 1
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
72%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate72%▼ 1
- Hike 25bps20%▲ 4
- Cut >25bps4%▼ 1
- Cut 25bps3%▲ 1
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%
Number of Fed Rate Cuts (Dec 9, 2026)
0.53median
-19
Median 0.53Middle half 0.24 – 0.83
Fed median dot plot in December 2026
4.05%median
3.4%4.7%
Median 4.05%Middle half 4.01% – 4.1%
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