Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase5%▼ 3
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
The odds
80%Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >080%▲ 1
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 012%▼ 5
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >04%▲ 1
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 02%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 01%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >01%
How the odds have moved
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0: 75% on Oct 20, 80% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 | 80% | ▲ 1 | 79¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | 9.3K |
| Rate: No change, Dissents: 0 | 12% | ▼ 5 | 11¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 6.9K |
| Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0 | 4% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 6.1K |
| Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 6.5K | |
| Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 9.00 | ||
| Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 8.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
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Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekA key update on inflation and its impact on consumer confidence, economic growth and interest rate policy will fill a busy calendar this week along with more big earnings reports. They all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm… -
Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704… -
The Federal Reserve At A Time Of UncertaintyEconomic uncertainty has increased on several fronts. That has made it even more difficult than before for the Fed to forecast the path of inflation and employment. Read more here... - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been consistently clear… -
Federal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hikeDespite hot inflation prints in September and the Fed having signalled that further action to tame inflation will likely be needed, markets and economists are united in expecting the central bank to leave interest rates on hold at the 28… - Brent Crude Tops $100 as Markets Await Federal Reserve September Meeting MinutesUS stock futures showed little directional conviction Wednesday morning as market participants positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting readout. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped marginally into negative…
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The Federal Reserve's Latest October Inflation Forecast Has Arrived, and It's Terrible News for Wall StreetYear four of Wall Street's bull market didn't disappoint. The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.02%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.21%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -2.60%) to… -
Investors Just Got Bad News From the Federal Reserve. Here's What History Says Comes Next.Up to this point, the market seems to be getting more comfortable with the idea of higher interest rates. The Fed has thus far only hiked rates one time, but the futures market is currently pricing in three more quarter-point increases by… -
Gold set for steep weekly loss as rising oil prices bolster Fed rate hike betsGold fell to a three-month low on Friday, headed for its steepest weekly decline in over four months, as higher energy prices fueled inflation concerns and reinforced elevated U.S. rate expectations ahead of next week's Federal Reserve… -
Powell scores 25 points to help the Bulls hold off the Bucks, 132-125October 23, 2026 / 6:37 PM CDT / AP Norman Powell had 25 points, rookie Caleb Wilson added 21 and the Chicago Bulls beat the Milwaukee Bucks 132-125 on Friday. The game was played four hours earlier than originally scheduled because of the… -
Factbox-Major brokerages expect next Fed rate hike in DecemberCitigroup became the latest major brokerage to forecast the Fed’s next rate increase in December, though several strategists said consecutive hotter-than-expected core inflation readings have made an October move a clear possibility. The… -
Wall Street Week Ahead: Earnings flood, Fed meeting will test rickety AI market rallyUS stock investors are on the edge of their seats as they anticipate quarterly earnings from tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. This week is pivotal, with the Federal Reserve meeting also in sight, likely to shape how…
Related markets
All the fed ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)1%▲ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 2
- No change22%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
75%chance▼ 3
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
74%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike74%▲ 2
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%▼ 2
- Hike–Hike–Hike4%▲ 1
2 more
- Other1%
- Hike–Hike–Pause1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.