Fed Decision in October?
95%No change
- No change95%
- 25 bps increase4%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
The odds
77%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 81% on Oct 20, 77% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 77% | 76¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | $1.1M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
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Federal Reserve expected to tap brakes on rate hikesThe Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday before raising them again in December. The decision would represent a win for the Trump administration, whose allies have urged the central bank against… -
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false… -
Can the Federal Reserve Keep Rates High Without Breaking Something?Although the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting, the bigger problem remains. Inflation is still stubborn, oil is well above $100, and US borrowing costs are… -
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial… -
Ethereum Faces Downside Pressure as Arthur Hayes Sells Holdings Ahead of Make-or-Break Federal Reserve MeetingEthereum has slipped back toward the $2,350 to $2,380 range, dragged down in part by high-profile asset dumps from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, while Bitcoin tests vital support at $80,500. One of the primary catalysts driving social… - September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
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Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekA key update on inflation and its impact on consumer confidence, economic growth and interest rate policy will fill a busy calendar this week along with more big earnings reports. They all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm… -
Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704… -
FOMC Meeting Puts Fed Interest Rate Decision in Focus as Inflation RisesUS inflation accelerated in September, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.7% year over year. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures changes in prices received by businesses, increased 1.3% from August. Higher energy… -
Gold gains on softer oil prices; Fed decision in focusGold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices tempered inflation concerns, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,009.87 per ounce by 0342 GMT, after hitting its… -
The Federal Reserve At A Time Of UncertaintyEconomic uncertainty has increased on several fronts. That has made it even more difficult than before for the Fed to forecast the path of inflation and employment. Read more here... - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been consistently clear…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%
- No change20%
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
74%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike74%▼ 1
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%
- Hike–Hike–Hike2%
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause1%
- Other1%▲ 1
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.22%median
0.88%4.63%
Median 4.22%Middle half 4.13% – 4.31%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions