How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Polymarket Economy › The Fed Closes Dec 31 · $66.6K today · $54.9M traded · $1.9M at stake · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

96%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)1%
3 (75 bps)<1%
2 (50 bps)<1%
4 (100 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%

1 more

12+ (300+ bps)<1%

How the odds have moved

0 (0 bps): 97% on Oct 20, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
0 (0 bps)	96%	96¢	96¢	$1.04	$9.1M
1 (25 bps)	1%	1¢	2¢	$66.67	$3.6M
3 (75 bps)	<1%	0¢	0¢		$3M
2 (50 bps)	<1%	0¢	0¢		$3.5M
4 (100 bps)	<1%	0¢	0¢		$2.8M
6 (150 bps)	<1%		0¢		$4.2M
7 (175 bps)	<1%		0¢		$3.5M
5 (125 bps)	<1%		0¢		$3M
8 (200 bps)	<1%		0¢		$3.3M
9 (225 bps)	<1%		0¢		$4.3M
10 (250 bps)	<1%		0¢		$5M
11 (275 bps)	<1%		0¢		$5.3M
12+ (300+ bps)	<1%		0¢		$4.2M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

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Jeff Sica discusses tech AI spending and Federal Reserve rate expectationsFox Business · 14 h agoCircle Squared Alternative Investments founder Jeff Sica discusses high-stakes AI spending from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during a busy earnings week on 'Varney & Co.' Sica warns that tech companies must deliver on artificial…
Federal Reserve expected to tap brakes on rate hikessemafor.com · 20 h agoThe Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday before raising them again in December. The decision would represent a win for the Trump administration, whose allies have urged the central bank against…
Federal Reserve to announce its latest interest rate move this week. Here's what economists expect.CBS News · 9 h agoOctober 26, 2026 / 4:10 PM EDT / CBS News The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet this week, when U.S. central bankers will decide whether to raise interest rates for the second time this year in a bid to subdue inflation. Most economists…
Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in October. Here's what that means for consumersCNBC · 13 h agoThe Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting — even as higher energy costs complicate the inflation outlook and put additional pressure on household budgets. The consumer price index, a…
Bitfinex: Bitcoin Tests $79,250 Support As Upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision LoomsCrypto Economy · 15 h agoHome > Bitcoin News > Bitfinex: Bitcoin Tests $79,250 Support As Upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision Looms Bitcoin fell to $79,250 last week, recording a 9.3% correction, its steepest pullback since the lows reached in July, according…
5 things to watch from the Federal Reserve's next meetingKSAT · 66 min agoWASHINGTON – Federal Reserve policymakers are likely to keep their key interest rate unchanged Wednesday when they finish what may seem like an uneventful meeting. But investors and economists will be looking between the lines of the…
Here's Exactly What Investors Should Look for From the Federal Reserve's October MeetingThe Motley Fool · 6 h agoIt's almost here. On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on the federal funds rate, which serves as the basis for other interest rates, such as loan rates and bond yields. That's why so many people are…
Federal Reserve Rate Decision Leads Packed Economic Calendar Impacting Crypto MarketsCrypto Economy · 17 h agoHome > Markets > Federal Reserve Rate Decision Leads Packed Economic Calendar Impacting Crypto Markets The crypto market faces a week packed with major economic announcements, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision…
4 Investments That Could Make Sense If the Federal Reserve Raises Interest RatesYahoo Finance · 19 h agoAfter the Federal Reserve recently decided to raise interest rates to cool an uptick in inflation, much of Wall Street and Main Street are trying to understand what its next move will be. According to a recent CNBC article, the chances of…
The Federal Reserve is set to hold rates this week: Why a December hike is virtually fully priced anywayFXStreet · 18 h agoThe US Dollar (USD) maintains a well-supported stance across global FX markets as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will keep the Fed funds rate steady at 3.75–4.00% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD)…
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookThe Epoch Times · 41 h agoPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false…
Can the Federal Reserve Keep Rates High Without Breaking Something?CryptoPotato · 38 h agoAlthough the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting, the bigger problem remains. Inflation is still stubborn, oil is well above $100, and US borrowing costs are…

Related markets

All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in October?

94%No change

No change94%▼ 1
25 bps increase6%▲ 1
50+ bps increase<1%

2 more

50+ bps decrease<1%
25 bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

74%25 bps increase

25 bps increase74%▼ 2
No change21%▲ 1
50+ bps increase3%

2 more

50+ bps decrease1%
25 bps decrease1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

75%2 (50 bps)

2 (50 bps)75%▲ 4
1 (25 bps)22%
3 (75 bps)2%▼ 3

2 more

4 (100 bps)<1%
5+ (125+ bps)<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

4.11%median

2.5%5.5%

Median 4.11%Middle half 4.03% – 4.2%

Economy › The Fed

SOFR for October 26, 2026

3.91%median

3.85%3.92%

Median 3.91%Middle half 3.91% – 3.91%

Economy › The Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

73%Hike–Pause–Hike

Hike–Pause–Hike73%
Hike–Pause–Pause20%▼ 1
Other3%▲ 1

2 more

Hike–Hike–Pause2%▲ 1
Hike–Hike–Hike2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$54.9M

Today$66.6K

This week$26K

At stake$1.9M

In the news149 headlines today, 1,129 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) wi

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.824+0.40%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,676.77+0.70%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it4.025−0.17%
^TNX^TNX · moves with it
IEFIEF · moves with it
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.48−0.02%
SPYSPY · moves with it765.37+0.71%
TLTTLT · moves with it81.68+0.42%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions