Resolved

What prediction markets settled on, and what traders expected the day before. An upset: the outcome that happened had under 30%.

• Rinaldo Persson vs MercierSettled Clemence MercierChance at the last reading: 34% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed today 9:25 PM ET
• Cincinnati vs DC United (CIN vs DCU (Oct 21))Settled CincinnatiChance a day before: 57% · Soccer · Kalshi · Closed today 9:25 PM ET
• Saraiva Dos Santos vs MallaSettled Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos SantosChance a day before: 47% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed today 8:25 PM ET
• BC.Game Esports vs. Eternal FireSettled Eternal FireChance at the last reading: 100% · Esports · Kalshi · Closed today 8:25 PM ET
• Montevideo City vs Atletico Mineiro: Regulation Time Moneyline (TOR vs ATL (Oct 21))Settled Reg Time: Montevideo City UpsetChance a day before: 29% · Soccer · Kalshi · Closed today 8:25 PM ET
• Saito / Xu vs Abe / YoshiokaSettled Abe / YoshiokaTennis · Kalshi · Closed today 7:25 PM ET
• Levante vs Bilbao (LEV vs ATH (Oct 21))Settled LevanteChance at the last reading: 90% · Soccer · Kalshi · Closed today 4:12 PM ET
• Onclin vs StruffSettled Jan-Lennard StruffTennis · Kalshi · Closed today 4:12 PM ET
• Maloney vs MiyoshiSettled Patrick MaloneyChance at the last reading: 42% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed today 3:05 PM ET
• Capurro Taborda vs MandlikSettled Elizabeth MandlikTennis · Kalshi · Closed today 2:16 PM ET
• Moutet vs BalshawSettled Corentin MoutetChance a day before: 60% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed today 1:06 PM ET
• What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina?Settled Transgender, Save America Act, HealthcarePoliticians · Kalshi · Closed today 1:06 PM ET
• Xu vs MironSettled Baotong Xu UpsetChance a day before: 12% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed today 1:06 PM ET
• Where will it rain on Oct 20, 2026?Settled 0.03Daily weather · Kalshi · Closed today 4:00 AM ET
• Damm Jr vs CerundoloSettled Francisco CerundoloChance a day before: 63% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed today 8:23 AM ET
• Alcala Gurri vs MollerSettled Elmer MollerChance a day before: 50% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed today 8:23 AM ET
• Fernandez vs SasnovichSettled Leylah FernandezChance a day before: 67% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed today 7:18 AM ET
• Duckworth vs DarderiSettled James DuckworthChance a day before: 48% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed today 6:29 AM ET
• Sik vs DongSettled Chen DongChance a day before: 59% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed today 2:06 AM ET
• Jalen Duren's Next TeamSettled DetroitChance a day before: 99% · NBA · Kalshi · Closed Tue 11:59 PM ET
• Carolina vs Vancouver (CAR vs VAN (Oct 20))Settled CarolinaChance a day before: 63% · NHL · Kalshi · Closed today 12:56 AM ET
• Mushika vs LiuSettled Mio MushikaChance at the last reading: 85% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed Tue 10:48 PM ET
• Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors: Regulation Time Moneyline (VDG vs BOC (Oct 20))Settled Reg Time: Boca JuniorsChance a day before: 34% · Soccer · Kalshi · Closed Tue 10:48 PM ET
• Shick vs DebruSettled Gabriel DebruChance at the last reading: 100% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed Tue 7:52 PM ET
• PSG vs Barcelona (PSG vs BAR (Oct 20))Settled PSGChance a day before: 39% · Soccer · Kalshi · Closed Tue 6:01 PM ET
• Boston vs Detroit (BOS vs DET (Oct 20))Settled DetroitChance a day before: 48% · NBA · Kalshi · Closed Tue 6:01 PM ET
• Napoli vs Bodoe/Glimt (NAP vs BOG (Oct 20))Settled NapoliChance a day before: 59% · Soccer · Kalshi · Closed Tue 6:01 PM ET
• Grubor vs KuhlSettled Carolina KuhlChance a day before: 85% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed Tue 6:01 PM ET
• Miyoshi vs CassoneSettled Kenta Miyoshi (b. 2004)Chance at the last reading: 65% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed Tue 6:01 PM ET
• Van Assche vs TaburSettled Luca Van AsscheChance a day before: 61% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed Tue 4:11 PM ET
• Nijkamp vs NilssonSettled Rose Marie NijkampTennis · Kalshi · Closed Tue 4:11 PM ET
• Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (October 12, 2026 - October 18, 2026)Settled Between 15,700,000 and 15,800,000Median a day before: 15.89M · Internet & creators · Kalshi · Closed Tue 10:00 AM ET
• Golden State Pro Basketball: Next Head Coach (GS (2026))Settled Steve Kerr / No new coachChance a day before: 99% · NBA · Kalshi · Closed Tue 10:00 AM ET
• Kawa vs SnigurSettled Katarzyna Kawa UpsetChance a day before: 27% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed Tue 11:40 AM ET
• Friedsam vs BasilettiSettled Noemi BasilettiChance a day before: 41% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed Tue 11:40 AM ET
• Zhu vs LazarenkoSettled Mariia LazarenkoChance a day before: 31% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed Tue 11:40 AM ET
• Adelaide Strikers Women vs Perth Scorchers Women (AS-W vs PS-W (Oct 19))Settled Perth Scorchers WomenChance at the last reading: 100% · Cricket · Kalshi · Closed Mon 10:15 PM ET
• Junin vs Barracas (CAS vs BAR (Oct 19))Settled TieChance at the last reading: 85% · Soccer · Kalshi · Closed Mon 8:07 PM ET
• Newell's Old Boys vs Central Cordoba (NOB vs CC (Oct 19))Settled Newell's Old BoysChance at the last reading: 96% · Soccer · Kalshi · Closed Mon 8:07 PM ET
• Schenekenberg vs Pinheiro da Cruz JuniorSettled Gabriel SchenekenbergChance at the last reading: 100% · Tennis · Kalshi · Closed Mon 3:46 PM ET

How often does the favorite win? The markets' track record ›

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.