World odds

Wars, ceasefires and diplomacy: Russia and Ukraine, Israel, Iran and the Middle East, China and Taiwan, and the world's leaders.

271 open markets · $7.2M traded today

Trending world markets

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

73%Nicolás Maduro
  • Nicolás Maduro73%▲ 1
  • Delcy Rodríguez18%
  • No Head of State2%
  • María Corina Machado1%
12 more
  • Jorge Rodríguez<1%
  • Edmundo González<1%
  • Marco Rubio<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Frank Donovan<1%
  • Diosdado Cabello Rondón<1%
  • Dinorah Figuera<1%
  • Donald Trump<1%
  • Vladimir Padrino López<1%
  • Evan Pettus<1%
  • Dan Caine<1%
  • Richard Grenell<1%
PolymarketCloses Dec 31 · $71.1K today · $98.5M traded

Iran leader end of 2026?

87%Mojtaba Khamenei
  • Mojtaba Khamenei87%▼ 1
  • No Head of State4%
  • Reza Pahlavi3%
  • Alireza Arafi2%
26 more
  • Hassan Rouhani1%
  • Abbas Araghchi<1%
  • Masoud Pezeshkian<1%
  • Ahmad Vahidi<1%
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf<1%
  • Hassan Khomeini<1%
  • Mahmoud Ahmadinejad<1%
  • Muhammad Mirbaqiri<1%
  • Sadegh Larijani<1%
  • Maryam Rajavi<1%
  • Mohammad Khatami<1%
  • Hassan Shariatmadari<1%
  • Massoud Rajavi<1%
  • Seyed Hossein Mousavian<1%
  • Reza Pirzadeh<1%
  • Navid Shomali<1%
  • Mustafa Hijri<1%
  • Ali Motahari<1%
  • Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel<1%
  • Mostafa Pourmohammadi<1%
  • Sadegh Mahsouli<1%
  • Saeed Jalili<1%
  • Mohsen Araki<1%
  • Nasir Hosseini<1%
  • Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani<1%
  • Ali Asghar Hejazi<1%
PolymarketCloses Dec 31 · $7.5K today · $40.3M traded

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

67%October 22
  • October 2267%▼ 3
  • October 2467%▼ 2
  • October 2867%▼ 2
  • October 3167%▼ 3
5 more
  • November 867%▼ 3
  • November 1567%▲ 1
  • November 2267%▲ 1
  • November 3067%▲ 2
  • December 3167%▲ 1
PolymarketCloses Oct 31 · $1.6M today · $18.5M traded

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

50%Gadi Eizenkot
  • Gadi Eizenkot50%▲ 4
  • Benjamin Netanyahu28%▼ 1
  • Naftali Bennett13%
  • Avigdor Lieberman4%▲ 1
15 more
  • Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
  • Yossi Cohen<1%
  • Israel Katz<1%
  • Amir Ohana<1%
  • Ofer Winter<1%
  • Yair Lapid<1%
  • Benny Gantz<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%
  • Gideon Sa’ar<1%
  • Yariv Levin<1%
  • Moshe Feiglin<1%
  • Ayelet Shaked<1%
  • Yoaz Hendel<1%
  • Nir Barkat<1%
  • Gilad Erdan<1%
PolymarketCloses Oct 27 · $587K today · $49.1M traded

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Dec 31, 2027even chance by
  • January 31, 202723%▲ 5
  • February 28, 202727%▲ 1
  • March 31, 202731%▲ 1
  • April 30, 202739%▲ 2
11 more
  • May 31, 202742%
  • June 30, 202742%
  • July 31, 202742%▲ 3
  • August 31, 202742%▲ 1
  • September 30, 202742%▲ 2
  • October 3142%▲ 1
  • October 31, 202742%▲ 1
  • November 30, 202742%▲ 1
  • November 3042%▲ 2
  • December 3142%▲ 4
  • December 31, 202769%▲ 1
PolymarketCloses Jun 30, 2027 · $83.9K today · $8.9M traded

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.