China & Taiwan odds

Every China & Taiwan market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.

268 open markets · $6.5M traded today

Trending china & taiwan markets

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

3%chance

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

25%chance

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

6%chance▲ 1

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

2%chance

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

5%Wang Huning

Wang Huning5%
Li Xi5%▼ 1
Dong Jun4%
Ding Xuexiang4%

5 more

Wang Yi3%
Cai Qi3%
Zhang Shengmin2%
Li Qiang2%▲ 1
Zhao Leji2%

China coup attempt by...?

21%December 31, 2027

December 31, 20264%
December 31, 202721%▲ 11

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

Dec 13, 2027even chance by

October 311%
December 3172%▼ 4

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?

6%December 31

December 316%▼ 16

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

21%Xiaomi

Xiaomi21%
DeepSeek17%▼ 1
ByteDance17%
Moonshot AI17%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.

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