Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%chance▲ 2
Install
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
The odds
3%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 2% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | $441K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan
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Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to ChinaSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power… -
Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese mainland marketI came here from Taiwan over 30 years ago to sell squid. We've all witnessed Xiamen's development. This time, I've brought high-quality seafood products from Taiwan, including giant grouper, ... Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese… -
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American And Chinese Aircraft Carriers Could Cross Paths As Tensions Rise Near TaiwanChina’s Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group is heading toward waters where an American supercarrier is conducting massive military exercises alongside allied warships. (ANTHONY WALLACE/AFP via Getty Images) The Chinese formation reached… -
Obama: "We Welcome China's Rise"January 20, 2011 / 9:58 AM EST / CBS News China's rapid growth is often painted as a threat to American interests. But President Obama said today that the country's economic progress benefits the United States and opens the door to greater… -
Never to be undermined: Remembering Taiwan's return to ChinaOct 25 marks the Commemoration Day of Taiwan's Restoration. Eighty-one years ago, Taiwan returned to China after half a century of Japanese colonial rule. "The restoration of Taiwan was achieved ... Never to be undermined: Remembering… -
Russia Trains China’s Army for Taiwan While Beijing Fuels Moscow’s WarRussia is training Chinese soldiers in drone warfare and urban combat and has agreed to equip and train a battalion of Chinese paratroopers, while China supplies 90 percent of the sanctioned technology entering Russia. “For decades, Russia… - China’s sanctions on Taiwan allies project its power, but with limited effectChina’s sanctions against foreign officials over their ties with Taiwan help Beijing project power and warn other governments, even as their financial impact and success in curbing engagement remain limited, analysts told Radio Free Asia…
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China’s secret political wranglings pave new term for XiChina’s Communist Party began a secretive four-day meeting that will likely pave the way for Xi Jinping to secure a new term as the country’s leader, further a long-running anti-corruption drive, and intensify his transformation of the… -
Massive waves thrash Taiwan as super typhoon Champi slams islandWild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. Wild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. -
Western luxury falters in ChinaWestern luxury brands have lost roughly $280 billion in value this year as Chinese consumers spend more on domestic products but less overall. Chinese producers are increasingly competing with Western challengers not only on price but on… - Tropical Storm Champi nears China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards China yesterday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of ... Choose a section, type your search topic…
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Why these Uyghurs joined a war thousands of miles from ChinaThey sought military training from whoever would give it. They ended up with new lives in Syria. Emily Feng is the author of “Our Hearts Burned for Home: Uyghur Militants in Syria’s Civil War.” Half a year later, when I sat down with him…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions