Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%chance
Install
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
The odds
3%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $15.7M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan, Xi Jinping
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Trump-Xi summit: Xi Jinping calls for US and China to be partners rather than rivalsChinese President Xi Jinping has called for the US and China to be partners, rather than rivals, as he arrived in Washington for a key summit with President Donald Trump. The two leaders are meeting for a third time in a year. Senior… -
Taiwan charges five men over plot to run over comedian for his Xi Jinping jokesPerson named ‘K’ from China paid five defendants to injure Huang Yi-hao, New Taipei prosecutors say Taiwanese prosecutors have charged five men over a plot to ram a car into a comedian who made fun of the Chinese Communist party and Xi… -
China’s Xi Jinping orders urgent relief after Tibet earthquake leaves 16 deadAll efforts need to be focused on search and rescue for survivors and treating the injured, President Xi Jinping instructed on Friday morning, after a 7.0-magnitude earthquake killed 16 and injured 65 in China’s Tibet autonomous region… - Xi Jinping's new Long MarchVisitors have traveled to the mountainous county of Yudu in Jiangxi Province to see where it all began. Yudu's visitors number in the millions each year. On the banks of the Yudu River in east China, a choir sang of soldiers leaving home…
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Xi Jinping May Have His Own Reasons to Avert a China-Russia-US SummitA formal trilateral could raise strategic questions that are awkward for the EU, Ukraine – and China itself. -
Taiwan comedian attack — Alleged culprits indicted over Xi Jinping satire hitThe Korea Daily Taiwan comedian attack â Alleged culprits indicted over Xi Jinping satire hit A gang that carried out a contract attack on a Taiwanese comedian who satirized Chinese President Xi Jinping has been sent to trial. On the… - Taiwan Indicts Five in Alleged CCP-Linked Attack on Comedian Who Mocked Xi JinpingHome » World » Taiwan Indicts Five in Alleged CCP-Linked Attack on Comedian Who Mocked Xi Jinping Taiwanese prosecutors have indicted five men accused of staging a vehicle attack on comedian Huang Yi-hao after he mocked Chinese Communist…
- Xi Jinping says China faces a new Long March — South China Morning PostUA.NEWS Xi Jinping says China faces a new Long March — South China Morning Post Chinese President Xi Jinping said during an event in Beijing marking the 90th anniversary of victory in the Long March that the country is facing a “new Long…
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Trump open to meeting with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on denuclearizationPresident Donald Trump proposes a trilateral meeting on denuclearization with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. He emphasizes that discussing nuclear weapons is a highly positive step for the world, rather than focusing primarily on the… -
Xi Jinping: the road of the Long March continues to extendOn October 22, a gathering was held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to commemorate the 90th anniversary of the victory of the Red Army’s Long March – the epic 1934–36 operation that saved and set the course of the Chinese… -
Xi Jinping calls for new achievements on new Long MarchChinese President Xi Jinping addresses a gathering held to commemorate the 90th anniversary of the victory of the Red Army's Long March in Beijing, China, October 22, 2026. /Xinhua Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday called for new… -
Death Rumors Swirl Online, but Xi Jinping Sends Reply to Kim Jong UnLet's discuss North Korea further with reporter Kim Ayeong. Reporter Kim, I understand rumors that North Korean General Secretary Kim Jong Un has died are spreading quickly online? This rumor first spread abroad rather than through…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions