Trump out as President before 2027?
4%chance
Install
In the News
The prediction markets whose subjects the news is naming most right now: the odds traders give them beside the headlines. Counted from the 4Conservative news index, headlines only.
957 headlines today · Jimmy Kimmel, Fired
Jimmy Kimmel: Fired in 2026?
6%chance▲ 1
890 headlines today · Streamer Awards, Gamer
Streamer Awards: Gamer of the Year (Gamer of the Year | 2026)
47%jynxzi
- jynxzi47%▼ 1
- Theburntpeanut38%
- Iitztimmy4%
3 more
- Supertf4%
- Feinberg4%
- Tie2%
727 headlines today · Max Miller, House
Will Max Miller leave the House before the midterms? (Before Nov 2026)
2%chance
714 headlines today · India, Pakistan
India strike on Pakistan by...?
10%December 31, 2026
- December 31, 202610%▼ 1
711 headlines today · MrBeast, Million
Will MrBeast hit ___ Million subscribers by October 31?
524.62Mhigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 524.62M.
- Reaches 523.00M>99%
- Reaches 524.00M80%
Already reached: 521m, 522m
683 headlines today · Iran, Israel
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
69%October 24
- October 2469%▲ 5
- October 2769%▲ 2
- October 3169%▲ 1
3 more
- November 1569%▼ 3
- November 3069%▼ 5
- December 3169%▼ 5
682 headlines today · Ukraine, Russia
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
11%June 30, 2027
- December 31, 20262%
- June 30, 202711%▲ 1
661 headlines today · Midterms, House
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
9.48%median
-100%100%
Median 9.48%Middle half 7.11% – 11.58%
661 headlines today · House, Senate
Will any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?
43%chance
605 headlines today · Target
Target Q3 comparable sales growth?
3.9%median
-1%7%
Median 3.9%Middle half 2.46% – 5.01%
600 headlines today · Senate, Midterms
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)
51.9median
44.552.5
Median 51.9Middle half 49.8 – 51.8
590 headlines today · MrBeast, Billion
Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by October 31?
98%144.5 billion
- 144.5 billion98%
- 144 billion97%
- 143.5 billion96%
1 more
- 145 billion50%▼ 11
554 headlines today · Iran, Jordan
Will Iran target Jordan by...?
33%October 31
- October 3133%▼ 4
518 headlines today · Ohio, Senate
Will Ohio's special Senate winner be sworn in on Dec 15? (Before Dec 16, 2026)
63%chance▼ 7
479 headlines today · China, Taiwan
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%chance
473 headlines today · House, Midterms
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)
35%Below 193
- Below 19335%▲ 1
- 198-20216%▼ 1
- 193-19714%▼ 1
8 more
- 203-20710%▲ 5
- 208-2128%
- 218-2227%▲ 1
- 213-2174%
- 223-2273%▲ 1
- Above 2371%
- 228-2321%
- 233-237<1%
446 headlines today · Base, Phone
Base iPhone 18 released by...?
Mar 21, 2027even chance by
- February 28, 202711%
- March 31, 202771%
- April 30, 202790%▲ 1
442 headlines today · Iran, Supreme Leader of Iran
Will Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?
4%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 20274%
439 headlines today · Iran, Saudi Arabia
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
17%November 30
- October 3110%▲ 2
- November 3017%▲ 4
428 headlines today · Lubbock, Texas
What will Trump say during his rally in Lubbock, Texas?
95%Save America Act
- Save America Act95%▼ 1
- Cheat / Cheater / Cheating90%▲ 1
- ICE88%▲ 4
32 more
- Sleepy Joe88%▲ 4
- Barack Hussein Obama87%▲ 11
- China / Chinese84%▲ 2
- Supreme Court83%▲ 8
- Sanctuary82%▲ 7
- Nuclear (3+ times)81%▲ 1
- Tariff (3+ times)80%▲ 5
- Iran (5+ times)74%▲ 18
- Kamala74%▲ 9
- Russia / Ukraine73%▲ 5
- Gulf of America73%▲ 5
- France73%▲ 3
- Drill Baby Drill68%▲ 1
- America First61%▲ 8
- Hormuz60%▼ 11
- Blockade60%▲ 17
- Made in America / American Made55%▲ 9
- Electricity44%▲ 24
- Israel / Israeli37%▼ 2
- AI / Artificial Intelligence34%▲ 4
- Deport / Deported / Deportation30%▼ 7
- Data Center30%▲ 2
- Trump Account30%▲ 10
- Social Security (5+ times)26%▲ 7
- Fentanyl21%▼ 1
- Windmill19%▼ 12
- Fraud (3+ times)17%▼ 1
- Ceasefire13%▲ 9
- Palestine / Palestinian8%▼ 3
- Event does not qualify4%
- Peace in the Middle East2%
- Crypto / Bitcoin2%
427 headlines today · Senate, Texas
Party to win the US Senate race in Texas in 2026
63%Democratic
- Democratic63%
- Republican37%
421 headlines today · Corpus Christi, Texas
What will Trump say during his rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?
95%Save America Act
- Save America Act95%
- Cheat / Cheater / Cheating91%▲ 1
- Gulf of America87%▲ 5
32 more
- Nuclear (3+ times)84%▲ 5
- Barack Hussein Obama82%▲ 7
- China / Chinese81%▲ 1
- Sanctuary79%▲ 4
- Tariff (3+ times)78%
- Supreme Court78%▲ 8
- Sleepy Joe76%
- ICE75%▼ 4
- Drill Baby Drill72%▲ 1
- France71%▲ 22
- Iran (5+ times)68%▲ 8
- Russia / Ukraine67%▲ 4
- Hormuz67%▲ 20
- Kamala66%▲ 12
- Made in America / American Made63%▲ 25
- America First62%▲ 14
- Blockade51%▲ 9
- Data Center37%▲ 10
- Israel / Israeli35%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence31%▼ 1
- Trump Account31%▲ 10
- Electricity27%▼ 17
- Deport / Deported / Deportation21%▼ 8
- Fraud (3+ times)17%▲ 4
- Social Security (5+ times)14%▲ 2
- Fentanyl14%▼ 2
- Windmill14%▼ 3
- Palestine / Palestinian9%▲ 3
- Ceasefire6%▲ 4
- Event does not qualify3%
- Peace in the Middle East2%▼ 1
- Crypto / Bitcoin2%
420 headlines today · New York, Mamdani
Will Mamdani endorse outside of New York? (Before Nov 3, 2026)
10%Before Nov 3, 2026
- Before Nov 3, 202610%▼ 8
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.