Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
✓ July 18
>99%
100¢
100¢
$246K
✓ July 20
>99%
100¢
100¢
$351K
✓ July 22
>99%
100¢
100¢
$953K
✓ July 23
>99%
100¢
100¢
$279K
✓ July 24
>99%
100¢
100¢
$773K
✓ July 25
>99%
100¢
100¢
$2.7M
✓ July 26
>99%
100¢
100¢
$1.1M
✓ July 27
>99%
100¢
100¢
$539K
✓ July 28
>99%
100¢
100¢
$393K
✓ July 29
>99%
100¢
100¢
$648K
✓ July 30
>99%
100¢
100¢
$553K
✓ July 31
>99%
100¢
100¢
$3.4M
✓ August 1
>99%
100¢
100¢
$1.4M
✓ August 2
>99%
100¢
100¢
$3M
✓ August 3
>99%
100¢
100¢
$1.1M
✓ August 4
>99%
100¢
100¢
$862K
✓ August 9
>99%
100¢
100¢
$2.4M
✓ August 15
>99%
100¢
100¢
$2.5M
✓ August 31
>99%
100¢
100¢
$3.3M
✓ September 15
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$163K
✓ September 30
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$3.3M
✓ October 9
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$60.1K
✓ October 15
>99%
▲ 2
100¢
100¢
$955K
✓ October 18
>99%
▲ 2
100¢
100¢
$805K
✓ October 21
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$1.5M
October 24
75%
99¢
100¢
$278K
October 27
75%
▲ 2
98¢
99¢
$1.02
$309K
October 31
75%
▲ 4
93¢
94¢
$1.06
$3.4M
November 15
75%
▲ 4
65¢
66¢
$1.52
$388K
November 30
75%
▲ 5
53¢
54¢
$1.85
$671K
December 31
75%
▲ 4
41¢
42¢
$2.38
$1.3M
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and IsraelNPR · 44 h agoNPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks with Middle East Institute senior fellow Natan Sachs about striking Iran, developments in the West Bank, and elections in Israel and the U.S. How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and Israel NPR's…
Latest news on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran — stories, videos, latest coverageCBS News · 43 h agoPresident Trump said Iran was trying to drive up oil prices before the midterms by lying about ships hitting mines or being struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts tell CBS News geography, interceptor shortages and evolving…
Iranians fear possible return to all-out war as US and Israeli elections approachPOLITICO · 30 h agoSome civilians are preparing to evacuate Tehran. People look at a billboard installation featuring an actor portraying President Donald Trump behind bars as the screen shows portraits of some school boys who were killed when their school…
Israel warns Iran with massive military drill as expert flags risk of accidental warFox News · 34 h agoIsraeli national security expert warns a single missile launch could spark rapid escalation amid major military drill. Israel warns Iran with massive military drill as expert flags risk of accidental war Israeli national security expert…
The lies ‘never end’ with the Iranian regime: Israeli special ops veteranFox Business · 3 days agoIsraeli special ops veteran Aaron Cohen joins âKudlowâ to discuss President Donald Trump's warnings to Iran amid concerns over the regime's efforts to rebuild its nuclear program. Cohen also discusses reports of potential joint…
US and Israel are warned against launching fresh strikes on Iranthe Guardian · 4 days agoMultinational ‘anti-war bloc’ uses Istanbul summit to call for a diplomatic solution to Middle East crisis Foreign ministers at a summit of eight European and Middle Eastern countries have urged the US and Israel not to renews their…
Israel, Iran ramp up war rhetoric, as prospect of open conflict loomssemafor.com · 4 days agoThe US-Israel war with Iran has been dormant for months, beyond sporadic flare-ups. Israel and Iran ramped up their rhetoric against one another, raising the prospect of a return to open conflict in the Middle East The US-Israel war with…
Retired general discusses the U.S. and Israeli plan for possible attack on IranNPR · 4 days agoNPR'S Leila Fadel speaks with retired four-star Gen. Joseph Votel about the war in Iran and the U.S. and Israeli objectives for a potential post-election bombing campaign. Retired general discusses the U.S. and Israeli plan for possible…
WHAT ISRAEL WANTS FROM IRANActivist Post · 34 h agoOn New Year’s Eve 2023, Christina Block’s two youngest children, aged ten and thirteen, stood with their father near the harbour in Gråsten, a Danish town close to the German border. Masked men attacked their father, forced the children…
Netanyahu warns Iran against 'disrupting' Israeli electionsMiddle East Eye · 31 h agoIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu published a video on Sunday warning "Iran and its proxies" that they would "suffer blows out of all proportion" if they were to target Israel aiming to ... Netanyahu warns Iran against 'disrupting'…
U.S. and Israel are planning for a possible attack on Iran after the midtermsNPR · 4 days agoThe U.S. and Israel are making moves that point to the possibility of renewed heavy fighting in Iran. The prospect of military escalation is complicated by critical elections in both the U.S. and Israel in the coming days. The U.S…
Senior Iranian lawmaker threatens to target Israel if Iran comes under attackMiddle East Monitor · 43 h agoOctober 25, 2026 at 12:00 pm The head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Ebrahim Azizi [X] The head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee warned Saturday that a…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions
