US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
70%October 22
- October 2270%
- October 2470%
- October 2870%▲ 3
6 more
- October 3170%▲ 8
- November 870%▲ 6
- November 1570%▲ 2
- November 2270%▲ 2
- November 3070%
- December 3170%
Install
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
The odds
62%Gadi Eizenkot
- Gadi Eizenkot62%▲ 5
- Benjamin Netanyahu23%▼ 3
- Naftali Bennett9%▼ 4
- Avigdor Lieberman2%▲ 1
- Yossi Cohen<1%
- Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
- Israel Katz<1%
- Amir Ohana<1%
- Yair Lapid<1%
- Benny Gantz<1%
- Yair Golan<1%
- Gideon Sa’ar<1%
7 more
- Yariv Levin<1%
- Moshe Feiglin<1%
- Ayelet Shaked<1%
- Yoaz Hendel<1%
- Nir Barkat<1%
- Gilad Erdan<1%
- Ofer Winter<1%
How the odds have moved
Gadi Eizenkot: 50% on Oct 20, 62% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 27, 11 AM ETGadi Eizenkot: 53% → 62%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 62% | ▲ 5 | 62¢ | 62¢ | $1.60 | $4.5M |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 23% | ▼ 3 | 22¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | $15.9M |
| Naftali Bennett | 9% | ▼ 4 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $4.6M |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 2¢ | $41.67 | $3.9M |
| Yossi Cohen | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $3.9M | ||
| Itamar Ben Gvir | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2.1M | ||
| Israel Katz | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1.3M | ||
| Amir Ohana | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2.9M | ||
| Yair Lapid | <1% | 0¢ | $2M | |||
| Benny Gantz | <1% | 0¢ | $2.3M | |||
| Yair Golan | <1% | 0¢ | $2.8M | |||
| Gideon Sa’ar | <1% | 0¢ | $2.5M | |||
| Yariv Levin | <1% | 0¢ | $2M | |||
| Moshe Feiglin | <1% | 0¢ | $2.5M | |||
| Ayelet Shaked | <1% | 0¢ | $2.1M | |||
| Yoaz Hendel | <1% | 0¢ | $1.7M | |||
| Nir Barkat | <1% | 0¢ | $1.8M | |||
| Gilad Erdan | <1% | 0¢ | $835K | |||
| Ofer Winter | <1% | 0¢ | $614K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu
Search ›-
Disenchanted Netanyahu supporters are prize of Israel election campaignCAMPAIGN. A person uses a smartphone next to a campaign van for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party at Hatikva market during Netanyahu's visit, ahead of Israel's national election, in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 22, 2026… -
Hamas says it agrees to new Gaza ceasefire proposal, but Israel makes counterofferMarch 29, 2025 / 9:20 PM EDT / CBS/AP The Hamas militant group said Saturday it has accepted a new Gaza ceasefire proposal from mediators Egypt and Qatar, but Israel said it has made a counter-proposal in "full coordination" with the third… -
The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli ElectionPaul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli Election Paul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman -
Why a far-right cabinet minister in Israel has Netanyahu's earIsrael's most far-right cabinet minister helped dictate hardline policies toward Palestinians in recent years. Benjamin Netanyahu vows to give him a senior position if Netanyahu is reelected next week. Why a far-right cabinet minister in… -
‘Gaza’s suffering has become campaign fodder’: Palestinians fear the worst from Israel electionHumanitarian catastrophe largely ignored as rivals Gadi Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu vow to end Hamas rule As Israel prepares to go to the polls, Palestinians in Gaza are bracing for an outcome that could shape their future, knowing… -
Why Israel’s election is more than a referendum on Netanyahu | CNNIsraelis vote Tuesday in their first election since the October 7, 2023 attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces his former military chief, Gadi Eisenkot. CNN’s Oren Liebermann explains why neither likely has a clear path to… -
Thousands of Israelis rally against Netanyahu gov’t days before electionOpposition figures join Tel Aviv protesters demanding an independent October 7 inquiry. Thousands of Israelis are protesting against the government and calling for an independent inquiry into the security failures that led to the October… -
BBC Audio | From Our Own Correspondent | Israel elections: Netanyahu's big testKate Adie introduces stories from Israel, Albania, the US and Chile. Israel goes to the polls on Tuesday in a pivotal vote on the future direction of the country. Israel's longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing a… -
Netanyahu, 34 other ‘Israelis’ face trial in Turkey over Gaza flotillaA Turkish court has launched proceedings against ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 34 other ‘Israelis’ over the interception of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla, maintaining arrest warrants for all defendants and… -
Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot who could displace Netanyahu touts ‘deep bonds’ with USFormer Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, who hopes to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tuesday’s elections, is touting the “deep bonds” between Israel and the US at a time when American support for the Jewish… -
Netanyahu May Lose Israeli Elections. That Won’t Save Gaza From Occupation.As living conditions here in Gaza deteriorate, we have little hope that Israel’s elections will ease our suffering. Israel is scheduled to hold general elections on October 27, with a fierce contest between incumbent Prime Minister… - Netanyahu's alternative blockchain economy a very bad ideaIf the original Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to hear what his current mutation said this past Friday – in an interview with a business news channel – he would likely call the district psychiatrist from a blocked number and…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions