US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
83%chance▲ 4
Install
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
The odds
68%October 22
- October 2268%
- October 2468%
- October 2868%▲ 5
- October 3168%▲ 3
- November 868%▲ 6
- November 1568%▲ 6
- November 2268%▲ 5
- November 3068%▲ 4
- December 3168%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
October 24: 65% on Oct 20, 68% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 11 PM ETOctober 24: 68% → 61%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ September 20 | >99% | ▲ 3 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $557K | |
| ✓ September 25 | >99% | ▲ 1 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $734K | |
| ✓ September 30 | >99% | ▲ 4 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2.5M | |
| ✓ October 5 | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $135K | ||
| ✓ October 7 | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $524K | ||
| ✓ October 9 | >99% | ▲ 1 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $345K | |
| ✓ October 12 | >99% | ▲ 3 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2M | |
| ✓ October 15 | >99% | ▲ 3 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2.1M | |
| ✓ October 16 | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $428K | |
| ✓ October 17 | >99% | ▲ 4 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $903K | |
| ✓ October 18 | >99% | ▲ 3 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $657K | |
| October 22 | 68% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3.7M | ||
| October 24 | 68% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1.8M | ||
| October 28 | 68% | ▲ 5 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | $1.1M |
| October 31 | 68% | ▲ 3 | 85¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | $6.8M |
| November 8 | 68% | ▲ 6 | 66¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | $167K |
| November 15 | 68% | ▲ 6 | 53¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | $534K |
| November 22 | 68% | ▲ 5 | 43¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | $101K |
| November 30 | 68% | ▲ 4 | 38¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | $91K |
| December 31 | 68% | ▲ 1 | 29¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | $776K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, US-Iran
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US-Iran War Live Updates: Saudi Arabia reports intercepting Houthi ballistic missile over RiyadhTensions across the Middle East intensified as the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Yemen reported military operations, exchanged warnings and ... US President Donald Trump has urged Israelis to vote for the return of Prime Minister… -
"Whether war happens or not, our policies remain in place": Iran FM Araghchi on US-Iran tensionsBrazil reviews US-Paraguay deal on Itaipu energy for AI projects "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam is practised, not merely preached": EAM Jaishankar on India's global outreach Pakistan’s LPG shortage rises as dealers strike, cooking fuel prices soar… -
Crude Oil Prices Fall Over 1% After Hitting Near Six-Month Highs, but Brent Remains Above $115 and WTI Near $101.50; Will Saudi Attacks and US-Iran Tensions Push Oil Towards $120?Crude oil prices eased on Monday after a sharp rally late last week, but both major benchmarks continued to trade above $100 per barrel as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns about the security of global energy… -
US-Iran-Israel War Latest News: Trump Says ‘Stop Killing Iranian Leaders’ to Identify US Negotiating Partners Amid Ongoing Tensions; Check Latest UpdateThe US president has reiterated his opposition to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, claiming that US military action has already severely diminished Tehran’s leadership and defence capabilities. “I gotta stop” killing Iranian leaders, Trump… -
US-Iran war: Trump warns of fresh strikes on Tehran, says attack could come ‘tomorrow’After weeks of relative calm in the United States’ war with Iran, President Donald Trump has again raised the prospect of an attack, saying it “may be tomorrow”. His remarks come as he focuses on the midterm elections scheduled for 3… -
America quietly empties its nearest bases? US' Iran preparations deepen the mystery, Israel on alert | VideosIs Washington preparing another attack on Iran? Israeli broadcaster Kan reported that Trump ordered CENTCOM to prepare a strike plan without setting a target date or approving an immediate attack. Israel reportedly heightened its security… -
Dow Plunges 652 Points After Crude Oil Tops $100 on Renewed US-Iran War FearsNew York stocks closed lower on Friday, October 23, 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to close at 52,215.16, as the previous session's technology selloff spread broadly across other sectors… -
US: Iran's Plans to Attack Americans in 'Advanced Stages"The State Department is reducing staffing at four US embassies in the Middle East after receiving intel that Iran has stepped up efforts to target American personnel in the region... US: Iran's Plans to Attack Americans in 'Advanced… -
US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump choosesUS forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. “It will be a big effort,” one… -
New threats could push US and Iran toward warThe US director of national intelligence warned that Iran was in the “advanced stages” of planning attacks against American officials abroad, prompting personnel evacuations and heightening the risk of a return to all-out war. US President… -
Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns… -
Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: ReportFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' ... Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: Report Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions