Predictions odds AI models and labs, SpaceX and space, big tech's launches and the open questions of science.
% US Dec
269 open markets · $1M traded today Trending tech & science markets
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T .
Reaches $1.5T 85% Reaches $1.75T 69% Reaches $2T 56% Falls to $800B 4% Falls to $700B 4% Falls to $600B 3% Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
December 31, 2026 1% June 30, 2027 10% December 31, 2027 14% ▲ 1 December 31, 2028 27%
Google 71% ▼ 4 Anthropic 27% ▲ 4 OpenAI 1% Meta <1% 17 more Alibaba <1% Moonshot <1% Baidu <1% Z.ai <1% Xiaomi <1% SpaceXAI <1% DeepSeek <1% Amazon <1% ByteDance <1% Nvidia <1% Thinky <1% MiniMax <1% Mistral <1% Meituan <1% Tencent <1% StepFun <1% Microsoft <1%
October 31 1% December 31 5%
Anthropic 50% ▲ 4 Google 40% ▲ 1 OpenAI 6% ▼ 2 Meta 2% ▼ 1 11 more xAI 1% Alibaba <1% DeepSeek <1% Moonshot <1% Z.ai <1% Mistral <1% Microsoft <1% Amazon <1% ByteDance <1% Baidu <1% Meituan <1%
December 31, 2027 10% December 31, 2028 18% ▼ 1 December 31, 2029 24%
December 31, 2026 18% ▼ 12 January 31, 2027 33% ▼ 6 February 28, 2027 36% ▼ 7 June 30, 2027 53% ▼ 4 1 more
October 23 2% ▼ 1 October 31 4% ▼ 5 November 30 20% ▼ 4 December 31 20% ▼ 10
Claude 51% ▲ 5 Gemini 38% ChatGPT 9% ▼ 2 Grok 3% ▼ 1 4 more Muse 1% ▼ 1 Qwen 1% Kimi <1% Ernie <1%
December 31, 2026 16% ▲ 1 December 31, 2027 51%
December 31, 2026 2% ▲ 1 June 30, 2027 14% ▼ 1 December 31, 2027 16% ▲ 1 December 31, 2028 28% ▼ 1
December 31, 2026 3% June 30, 2027 14% December 31, 2027 21% December 31, 2028 25% ▲ 1
December 31, 2026 2% June 30, 2027 11% December 31, 2027 12% December 31, 2028 26%
December 31, 2026 2% June 30, 2027 9% December 31, 2027 13% December 31, 2028 21%
December 31, 2026 3% June 30, 2027 16% December 31, 2027 21% December 31, 2028 27%
Before Jan 20, 2029 21% ▲ 1 Before Jan 1, 2028 14% ▲ 1 Before Jan 1, 2027 4% Before Dec 1, 2026 3% 1 more
Google 52% ▲ 7 Anthropic 39% ▼ 7 OpenAI 4% ▼ 1 Meta 2% 17 more Alibaba 1% Moonshot 1% Z.ai 1% SpaceXAI <1% DeepSeek <1% Xiaomi <1% Baidu <1% Amazon <1% ByteDance <1% Nvidia <1% Thinky <1% MiniMax <1% Mistral <1% Meituan <1% Tencent <1% StepFun <1% Microsoft <1%
No release by November 1 96% ▲ 7 October 26–November 1 2% ▼ 1 October 19–October 25 2% ▼ 1
October 21 21% ▼ 20 October 22 38% ▼ 19 October 24 45% ▼ 27 October 31 73% ▼ 7 1 more
Before 2030 61% ▲ 1 Before 2028 49% ▲ 4 Before 2027 4% ▼ 2
December 31, 2026 3% June 30, 2027 11% December 31, 2027 17% December 31, 2028 24%
5 17
Median 10.5 Middle half 10.2 – 10.8
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? 
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? 
Which company has the best AI model end of October? 
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? 
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? 
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? 
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? 
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? 
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...? 
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...? 
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...? 
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...? 
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...? 
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? 
North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?