US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $66.3K traded · $5.6K at stake · prices read 25 min ago

The odds

5%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 5% on Oct 20, 5% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	5%		4¢	5¢	$18.87	$66.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan

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Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to Chinathe Guardian · 3 days agoSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power…
Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese mainland market@ChinaDailyApp · 35 h agoI came here from Taiwan over 30 years ago to sell squid. We've all witnessed Xiamen's development. This time, I've brought high-quality seafood products from Taiwan, including giant grouper, ... Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese…
CNBC's The China Connection newsletter: The 'cliff' beneath China's citiesCNBC · 15 h agoHi, this is Anniek, writing to you from Singapore, with Evelyn, who reported from the Bund Summit in Shanghai last week. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a snapshot of what we are seeing and hearing from China…
China Versus Taiwan: 2 Educators Reflect on Learning, Critical Thinking, and Social ValuesThe Epoch Times · 14 h agoTwo veteran educators from mainland China have drawn considerable attention online after recently sharing candid reflections on their visits to Taiwan. Their accounts contrasted the island’s open classroom discussions and everyday civic…
American And Chinese Aircraft Carriers Could Cross Paths As Tensions Rise Near Taiwandailycaller · 18 h agoChina’s Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group is heading toward waters where an American supercarrier is conducting massive military exercises alongside allied warships. (ANTHONY WALLACE/AFP via Getty Images) The Chinese formation reached…
Massive waves thrash Taiwan as super typhoon Champi slams islandNew York Post · 3 days agoWild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. Wild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries.
Never to be undermined: Remembering Taiwan's return to China@ChinaDailyApp · 3 days agoOct 25 marks the Commemoration Day of Taiwan's Restoration. Eighty-one years ago, Taiwan returned to China after half a century of Japanese colonial rule. "The restoration of Taiwan was achieved ... Never to be undermined: Remembering…
Tropical Storm Champi nears China after battering Taiwan, JapanGulf Times · 47 h agoA powerful storm swept towards China yesterday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of ... Choose a section, type your search topic…
Obama: "We Welcome China's Rise"CBS News · 31 h agoJanuary 20, 2011 / 9:58 AM EST / CBS News China's rapid growth is often painted as a threat to American interests. But President Obama said today that the country's economic progress benefits the United States and opens the door to greater…
Tropical Storm Champi nears mainland China after battering Taiwan, JapanMacau Business · 3 days agoA powerful storm swept towards mainland China on Saturday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights. Typhoon Champi was…
Western luxury falters in Chinasemafor.com · 40 h agoWestern luxury brands have lost roughly $280 billion in value this year as Chinese consumers spend more on domestic products but less overall. Chinese producers are increasingly competing with Western challengers not only on price but on…
What's next for China after Xi Jinping?BBC · 21 h agoIn this bonus episode we answer your questions about the next generation of Chinese leaders and how they might run the world superpower. Presenter Celia Hatton is joined by the BBC's China ... What's next for China after Xi Jinping? In…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$66.3K

This week$1.1K

At stake$5.6K

In the news532 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI m

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.ULCC · about the company4.9900+1.63%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions