Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $167K today · $3.2M traded · $212K at stake · prices read 9 min ago

The odds

56%Anthropic

Anthropic56%▲ 4
Google34%▼ 3
OpenAI6%
Meta2%
xAI1%
Alibaba1%
DeepSeek<1%
Moonshot<1%
Z.ai<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%

3 more

Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

How the odds have moved

Anthropic: 51% on Oct 20, 56% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Anthropic	56%	▲ 4	55¢	57¢	$1.75	$435K
Google	34%	▼ 3	33¢	35¢	$2.86	$416K
OpenAI	6%		6¢	6¢	$17.54	$253K
Meta	2%		1¢	2¢	$52.63	$23K
xAI	1%		1¢	1¢	$83.33	$202K
Alibaba	1%		1¢	1¢		$211K
DeepSeek	<1%		0¢	0¢		$186K
Moonshot	<1%		0¢	0¢		$201K
Z.ai	<1%		0¢	0¢		$181K
Mistral	<1%		0¢	0¢		$226K
Microsoft	<1%		0¢	0¢		$15K
ByteDance	<1%		0¢	0¢		$144K
Meituan	<1%			0¢		$108K
Amazon	<1%			0¢		$153K
Baidu	<1%			0¢		$122K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence

Search ›

Nvidia backs Indian startup helping companies run AI models with fewer GPUsTechCrunch · 3 h agoAs the AI boom strains computing capacity, Nvidia has backed Indian startup Simplismart in a $14 million funding round, betting on software that helps companies run AI models more efficiently and, in some cases, with fewer GPUs. Nvidia…
OpenAI Launches GPT-6.1 Terra, Its Half-Good AI Model at Half the PriceDecrypt · 12 h agoOpenAI released GPT-6.1 Terra on Monday, an upgrade to the middle model in its lineup that it says costs developers 50% less than GPT-5.6 Terra and handles computer tasks faster and more accurately. Terra is the everyday model, built for…
Anthropic’s Claude AI model accessed Georgia voter data in USthe Guardian · 27 h agoAnthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis songs to train AI models Anthropic’s Claude model accessed voter data in the US state of Georgia, the AI company has confirmed, in the latest example of unauthorised behaviour by the technology…
Anthropic says its AI model Claude accessed public voter data with promptingCBS News · 16 h agoCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Anthropic says its AI…
Jay-Z Slams AI, Says to ‘Question Everything’ After SoFi Concert Criticism: ‘We Got Real Intelligence, Not Artificial Intelligence’Billboard · 12 h agoThe Brooklyn rapper and mogul shot back at trolls online as he closed out his two-show stint in L.A. Jay-Z had a message for those online who tried to highlight low resale ticket prices and questioned whether or not his JAŸ-Z30 Tour stops…
Anthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis Presley songs to train AI modelsthe Guardian · 44 h agoAuthentic Brands Group says AI company infringed on rights of songs by the King such as Can’t Help Falling in Love Authentic Brands Group, the licensing organization that has ownership of both Presley’s music and likeness, is accusing…
Artificial intelligence bot accesses Georgia voting dataajc · 31 h agoAn artificial intelligence agent accessed publicly available Georgia voter data, sources from the Secretary of State’s Office and AI company Anthropic confirmed. On Monday, Anthropic confirmed its Claude artificial intelligence bot…
Artificial IntelligenceDrishti IAS · 31 h agoFor Prelims: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Weak AI, Strong AI, Differences Between AI, ML and DL, Types of AI. For Mains: Indigenization of Technology & Developing New Technology, Awareness in Different Fields, Advantages of AI…
Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks To Follow Today – October 25thDefense World · 9 h agoSentinelOne, Tempus AI, and Hut 8 are the three Artificial Intelligence stocks to watch today, according to MarketBeat’s stock screener tool. Artificial intelligence stocks are shares of publicly traded companies that develop, provide, or…
IIT Kharagpur Plans India's First Physical Artificial Intelligence SchoolNDTV · 8 h agoThe IIT Kharagpur has signed a tripartite MoU with its alumni and philanthropist Vinod Gupta and the IITKGP Foundation USA to establish the Benjamin Gupta School of Physical AI. IIT Kharagpur: The Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)…
Artificial intelligence in elections@WFAE · 27 h agoArtificial intelligence has been making its way into this campaign cycle, with concerns about data centers in neighborhoods potentially swaying voters and AI in campaign ads leading to confusion over content. Two-thirds of Americans are…
Cadence Design Systems Introduces Maestro AI Model PortfolioMarketScreener · 18 h agoCadence Design Systems said Monday it introduced Maestro, a domain-specialized artificial intelligence model portfolio for agentic chip and system design. The portfolio spans multiple model sizes... Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence…

Related markets

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Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of November?

46%Anthropic

Anthropic46%▲ 2
Google46%▲ 4
OpenAI4%

18 more

Meta2%
Z.ai<1%
Alibaba<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
Moonshot<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Xiaomi<1%
Baidu<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

88%Google

Google88%▲ 2
Anthropic9%▼ 1
Meta<1%

18 more

OpenAI<1%▼ 1
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

Nov 25, 2026even chance by

October 3116%▼ 2
November 1533%▼ 4
November 3059%▲ 3

2 more

December 1575%▼ 2
December 3180%▼ 7

Tech › AI

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Dec 11, 2027even chance by

December 31, 202616%▲ 1
December 31, 202752%▲ 2

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.26Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.26T.

Reaches $1.5T96%
Reaches $1.75T84%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

69%No release by October 31

No release by October 3169%▲ 12
October 2714%▼ 6
October 297%▲ 2

11 more

October 287%▲ 2
October 301%▼ 1
October 201%▼ 12
October 311%▲ 1
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1
October 26<1%▼ 4

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET

Traded$3.2M

Today$167K

This week$465K

At stake$212K

In the news102 headlines today, 721 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie rema

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company249.47+0.15%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company99.67−0.58%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company77.41−0.57%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company317.57+0.24%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company623.07−1.19%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company528.64−0.74%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions