No release by October 31: 24% on Oct 20, 69% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No release by October 31 | 69% | ▼ 2 | 68¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | $99.3K |
| October 27 | 13% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 14¢ | $7.04 | $32.9K |
| October 26 | 6% | ▲ 2 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $8.7K |
| October 29 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.71 | $12.5K |
| October 28 | 3% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | $8.3K |
| October 30 | 3% | ▲ 2 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $18.52 | $7.7K |
| October 31 | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $45.45 | $14.4K |
| October 20 | 1% | ▼ 12 | 0¢ | 1¢ | $76.92 | $36.2K |
| October 19 | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $8.6K | ||
| October 21 | <1% | ▼ 5 | 0¢ | $13.6K | ||
| October 22 | <1% | ▼ 14 | 0¢ | $28K | ||
| October 23 | <1% | ▼ 4 | 0¢ | $8K | ||
| October 24 | <1% | 0¢ | $14.8K | |||
| October 25 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $13.5K | ||
| On or prior to October 3 | <1% | ▼ 43 | 4¢ | $25.00 | $271 | |
| October 4 | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $688 | ||
| October 5 | <1% | ▼ 4 | 0¢ | $553 | ||
| October 6 | <1% | ▼ 14 | 0¢ | $1.5K | ||
| October 7 | <1% | ▼ 12 | 10¢ | $9.71 | $992 | |
| October 8 | <1% | 3¢ | $30.30 | $1.7K | ||
| October 9 | <1% | ▼ 3 | 0¢ | $627 | ||
| October 10 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $528 | ||
| October 11 | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $588 | ||
| October 12 | <1% | ▼ 3 | 0¢ | $638 | ||
| October 13 | <1% | ▼ 14 | 0¢ | $1.6K | ||
| October 14 | <1% | ▼ 21 | 0¢ | $5.5K | ||
| October 15 | <1% | ▼ 10 | 0¢ | $9.1K | ||
| October 16 | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $7.2K | ||
| October 17 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $1.6K | ||
| October 18 | <1% | 0¢ | $2.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions