Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $39.3K today · $896K traded · $166K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

Nov 19, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 24<1%▼ 1
October 3131%▼ 4
December 3194%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

October 21: 21% on Oct 20, <1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 21, 8 PM ETOctober 21: 11% → <1%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
October 8	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$17.5K
October 9	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$28.9K
October 10	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$37.4K
October 12	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$21.4K
October 14	<1%	▼ 28		0¢		$48.5K
October 15	<1%	▼ 13		0¢		$18.4K
October 16	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$13.4K
October 17	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$71.5K
October 18	<1%			0¢		$4.7K
October 21	<1%	▼ 12		0¢		$41.2K
October 22	<1%	▼ 14		0¢		$54.6K
October 24	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$143K
October 31	31%	▼ 4	31¢	32¢	$3.13	$36K
December 31	94%	▼ 1	93¢	95¢	$1.06	$35.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Fable Model

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Sam Altman’s three AI safety scenarios range from global oversight to a worst-case outcome: Report@firstpost · 5 days agoAs the US considers a framework for overseeing superintelligence, Altman has reportedly outlined three scenarios, ranging from international AI oversight to a future in which a developer uses self-improving AI to monopolise computing power…
Sam Altman reportedly pitched three endgames for AI safety, one involving a single firm melting everyone else's GPUsThe Decoder · 6 days agoOpenAI CEO Sam Altman reportedly laid out three approaches to safe AI for his employees. The details come from a report by The Information, citing people familiar with the matter. Altman made the remarks internally last week, while the…
Bank of America hired 1,000 security consultants to address Mythos-spotted flawsIT Pro · 11 days agoTemp hires were needed to work through patches and other fixes necessary to address vulnerabilities spotted by the AI security models How many security professionals does it take to clean up the flaws found by AI? About a third more than…
Claude Fable 5.5 reportedly spotted in Azure configs, but Anthropic has not confirmed itCrypto Briefing · 13 days agoAn unverified sighting has fueled talk of a new Fable model, though Anthropic's own documentation still lists Fable 5.1 as the top of the line A model called Claude Fable 5.5 has reportedly turned up in Microsoft Azure configuration files…
Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5: Model WelfareDon't Worry About the Vase · 21 days agoIf you are familiar with my previous posts on model welfare for new Claude models, you can skip the Introduction and The Story So Far. This post goes over model welfare and related concerns, the same way I previously did for Fable and…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 6:59 PM ET

Traded$896K

Today$39.3K

This week$194K

At stake$166K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, su

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions