Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Polymarket Tech › Space Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $17K today · $1.6M traded · $138K at stake · prices read 19 min ago

The odds

Jun 20, 2027even chance by

December 31, 202613%
January 31, 202724%▲ 1
February 28, 202728%
June 30, 202752%▼ 5
December 31, 202761%▼ 4

How the odds have moved

December 31, 2026: 18% on Oct 20, 13% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
September 30, 2026	<1%			0¢		$416K
December 31, 2026	13%		12¢	13¢	$7.69	$331K
January 31, 2027	24%	▲ 1	23¢	25¢	$4.00	$62.2K
February 28, 2027	28%		28¢	29¢	$3.45	$35.8K
June 30, 2027	52%	▼ 5	51¢	53¢	$1.89	$76.4K
December 31, 2027	61%	▼ 4	60¢	61¢	$1.64	$83K
June 30	<1%			0¢		$607K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: SpaceX, Tesla and SpaceX

Search ›

Tesla and SpaceX discuss potential $3.5T merger, no formal deal yetCrypto Briefing · 43 h agoEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
Elon Musk wants to merge Tesla and SpaceX into a $3.5 trillion tech giant. Here’s what could go wrongThe Independent · 26 h agoElon Musk believes a merger between Tesla and SpaceX is a good idea, he said on Tuesday Elon Musk has thrown his support behind a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX, a blockbuster deal that could create a $3.5 trillion technology…
3 AI Infrastructure Stocks Riding The Tesla And SpaceX Compute BuildoutYahoo Finance · 43 h agoThe stocks covered below are just a starter pack, and the full screen pulled up 52 more large cap AI hyperscaler and compute infrastructure candidates with similarly rich stories that this article will not touch. If you want to move fast…
Tesla and SpaceX merger: can Musk defy the conglomerate discount?The Irish Times · 3 days agoInvestors are usually wary of companies that try to do everything. Elon Musk has made a career out of persuading them to make an exception, so perhaps it wasn’t surprising when investors cheered the idea of a combining SpaceX and Tesla…
Elon Musk Became the First Person Ever Confirmed With a Net Worth Above $1 Trillion in June 2026. Here's Why That Milestone Still Matters for Tesla and SpaceX Shareholders.The Motley Fool · 42 h agoWhen Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.89%) went public in June, CEO Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire thanks to his stake in the company. His net worth has fluctuated quite a bit since then, from as high as $1.45…
Tesla and SpaceX Could Unite $2.5B in Bitcoin Without Buying a Single BTCCryptoPotato · 3 days agoTesla hasn’t sold any of its remaining Bitcoin. And a possible merger with SpaceX could put both companies’ Bitcoin under one corporate roof. SpaceX disclosed 18,712 BTC in its June IPO filing. Tesla reported this week that it still holds…
Stocktwits Zero To Sixty: Tesla And SpaceX Form Merger Committees As Profits Drop, While Rivian Buys AI Startup And GM, Ford Advance EV PlansStocktwits · 4 days agoTesla and SpaceX moved closer to a possible combination this week after Elon Musk publicly endorsed the idea, while the EV maker reported flat revenue and a profit decline for the third quarter. Autonomy efforts advanced elsewhere, with…
Tesla and SpaceX Could Merge. But Here’s the Bigger Opportunity…InvestorPlace · 4 days agoSpaceX and Tesla’s earnings tell an interesting story. But that’s only part of the picture… Elon Musk has done some incredible things over the years. He’s helped revolutionize the auto industry, made reusable rockets a reality and built…
Tesla and SpaceX form special committees to weigh potential mergerCNBC · 6 days agoCNBC Tesla and SpaceX form special committees to weigh potential merger
Elon Musk wants merge Tesla and SpaceX despite China hurdleJournalArta · 5 days agoSays Tesla and SpaceX have formed committees to examine a possible merger, but no binding agreement has been announced. The companies have existing links in AI… Elon Musk wants merge Tesla and SpaceX, and both companies have formed…
Could Elon Musk merge Tesla and SpaceX?Yahoo Finance · 4 days agoManhattan Venture Partners Managing Partner Jared Carmel joins Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi on Sozzi Unleashed to explore the possibility of a merger between Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX). What are you expecting…
Elon Musk considers historic Tesla and SpaceX merger worth $3.5 trillionThe Business Standard · 5 days agoElon Musk is considering a historic merger between Tesla and SpaceX, potentially combining two companies valued at approximately $3.5 trillion. The proposed deal could unite Tesla's electric vehicles, AI technology, and Optimus robots with…

Related markets

All space ›

Tech › Space

How many launches will SpaceX have in October? (Oct 2026)

10.4median

517

Median 10.4Middle half 10.2 – 10.7

Tech › Space

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? (Before 2027)

24%Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 20, 202924%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 202814%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 20275%

2 more

Before Dec 1, 20264%▲ 1
Before Nov 1, 20261%

Tech › Space

Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)

7.66%median

3.3%17.8%

Median 7.66%Middle half 7.53% – 7.79%

Tech › Space

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

71%November 30, 2026

November 30, 202671%▼ 1
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?61%▲ 8
Super Heavy booster explodes?42%▼ 5

4 more

Chopsticks catch Starship?37%▼ 14
Successful splash down?26%
November 15, 202617%▼ 13
October 31, 2026<1%

Tech › Space

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$942.77Bmedian

$600B$1.3T

Median $942.77BMiddle half $903.49B – $982.06B

Tech › Space

How many launches will Rocket Lab have before 2027?

10.5median

514

Median 10.5Middle half 10.1 – 10.8

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.6M

Today$17K

This week$101K

At stake$138K

In the news100 headlines today, 1,877 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Tesla, Inc.TSLA · about the company401.19+2.44%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions