Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
4%December 31
- October 311%
- December 314%
Install
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
The odds
62%Before 2040
- Before 204062%
- Before 203550%▼ 1
- Before 203037%▼ 3
- Before 20272%
How the odds have moved
Before 2040: 62% on Oct 20, 62% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2040 | 62% | 61¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 3.0K | |
| Before 2035 | 50% | ▼ 1 | 48¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | 7.7K |
| Before 2030 | 37% | ▼ 3 | 35¢ | 40¢ | $2.48 | 16.4K |
| Before 2027 | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | 21.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Quantum
Search ›-
Quantum BioPharma (NASDAQ: QNTM) Featured in Men’s Fitness Article Examining Unbuzzd Clinical Trial ResultsUSA Today Quantum BioPharma (NASDAQ: QNTM) Featured in Men’s Fitness Article Examining Unbuzzd Clinical Trial Results Quantum BioPharma (NASDAQ: QNTM) was featured in a Men’s Fitness article by Lakshan Weeraratne examining clinical trial… -
Zcash Developer Zakura Proposes Fix to Stop Quantum Computers Linking Shielded SwapsZakura, a developer of Zcash full node software, has proposed a way to stop a future quantum computer from linking users' private Zcash payments, in an engineering post by Zakura developer Adam Tucker announced on Sunday. The approach… -
Zcash developers plan a fix to keep ZEC swaps private from future quantum computersThe team behind Zakura, a newer version of the software that runs the Zcash network, wants to give every ZEC swap made through NEAR Intents its own private key. The change would close a gap that a future quantum computer could use to piece… -
Zapata Quantum gets guidance on hardware-agnostic quantum appsIvy Delaney has been working with neural networks and machine learning since the mid-nineties, back when a couple of hidden layers and a long afternoon of training counted as ambitious. She has watched the field go from academic curiosity… -
Coherence Quantum Launches with €2.78 Million ($3.1 Million USD) Seed Round to Scale Cryogenic Quantum ControlWritten by the team at Global Quantum Intelligence GQI’s intelligence platform, from the team that publishes QCR. Your QCR account includes a free preview. Finnish quantum hardware startup Coherence Quantum has officially launched out of… -
Postquant Labs Launches Quantum Virtual Machine to Unify Execution Across Quantum HardwareOct 20, 2026, 12:00 ET Quip's QVM provides a shared programming environment across leading quantum hardware platforms, with researchers from Monash University, the University of Notre Dame and Purdue University evaluating its potential for… -
Coherence Quantum raises €2.78M to tackle quantum computer scaling challengesFinnish quantum hardware startup Coherence Quantum has raised €2.78 million in a seed funding round to develop its cryogenic signalling and control technology for quantum computers. The round was led by Lifeline Ventures, with… -
Blueprint For Future Quantum Computer SoftwareWollongong-based online news outlet covering Australia and beyond. If you have anything newsworthy - a story, video or picture to share with us, please email us. You might also like Cooking Up Joy: How to Find Pleasure in the Kitchen Cave… -
US Government Funded Quantum Chemistry & Quantum Life Science InitiativesIQT Quantum Chemical & Quantum Life Science News This week’s issue discusses United States’ government agencies working to develop and commercialize quantum chemistry and quantum life sciences, The funding sources are also delineated, We… -
Coinbase's Plan for a Quantum-Safe BitcoinYesterday, Brian Armstrong shared Coinbase's latest thinking on preparing Bitcoin for quantum computers. It's the newest step in a push that started in January, when Coinbase established an independent quantum advisory board featuring… -
Colorado Quantum Computing Industry Tops 65 Companies as Elevate Quantum Drives GrowthIn 2024, 48 quantum companies were operating in Colorado, employing about 3,000 people. As of this autumn, there are more than 65 companies, and the quantum workforce has increased 20% year over year, says Jessi Olsen, CEO of Elevate… -
Exclusive: Coherence Quantum raises €2.78M to cut the heat inside quantum computersCoherence Quantum’s founding team in Espoo. From left, Aashish Sah, Erkki Soininen, Mikko Möttönen and Suman Kundu. Think of a quantum computer as a very delicate machine that needs to operate in extreme cold. The processor is the part…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.