Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
4%December 31
- October 31<1%
- December 314%
Install
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
The odds
Nov 26, 2027even chance by
- June 30, 202714%
- September 30, 202728%▲ 1
- December 31, 202764%
How the odds have moved
June 30, 2027: 12% on Oct 20, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 14% | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | $34.7K | |
| September 30, 2027 | 28% | ▲ 1 | 28¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | $17.6K |
| December 31, 2027 | 64% | 63¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | $165K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FDA
Search ›- The FDA rarely inspects much of the produce Americans eatBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Americans are eating…
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MIT class project turns into an FDA-cleared treatment for tremorsVom MIT‑Klass'n zum FDA‑Standard: Warum Vision‑Technologie den Blick verändert Ein MIT‑Klass´projekt wurde zur FDA‑zulassen Tremor‑Therapie – ein klarer Beleg, wie Forschung in klinische Praxis einfließen kann. Als Entwickler, der selbst… -
FDA Shortage Data Offers Uneven AI Warning and Policy LessonsPublic FDA shortage records helped a machine-learning model concentrate 40% of 90-day recurrence events in the highest-risk 10% of test observations, while a synthetic inventory study showed no overall advantage for Q-learning over simpler… -
FDA Guidance Addresses Master Protocols for COVID-19 DrugsFDA recently released guidance about evaluating COVID-19 drugs and biological products for the treatment or prevention of the coronavirus. In section A, the agency stated that all sponsors developing COVID-19 treatments should consider… -
Enzomenib Earns FDA Breakthrough Status in KMT2A-Rearranged LeukemiaTHE COUNTDOWN IS ON The investigational menin inhibitor is being evaluated in a registrational phase 2 trial for patients with relapsed or refractory acute leukemia. Enzomenib is being evaluated as monotherapy in the registrational phase 2… -
FDA Submission Filed for Neladalkib in ALK+ Lung CancerNuvalent submitted an NDA for neladalkib to the FDA for patients with previously treated ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer, based on ALKOVE-1 trial data showing activity. Nuvalent, Inc. announced that it has submitted a new drug… -
FDA Approves Adjuvant Cemiplimab for Cutaneous Squamous Cell CarcinomaThe FDA approved cemiplimab-rwlc for the adjuvant treatment of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma at high risk of recurrence after surgery and radiation. The FDA has approved cemiplimab-rwlc (Libtayo) for the adjuvant treatment of adult… -
Rusfertide Earns FDA Priority Review in Polycythemia VeraThe FDA has set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act date for the third quarter of 2026 for approving rusfertide for polycythemia vera. The FDA has granted priority review to a new drug application (NDA) ... -
FDA Approves Talazoparib Plus Enzalutamide for HRR-Mutated mHSPCThe FDA approved talazoparib plus enzalutamide for HRR-mutated metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer after TALAPRO-3 cut progression risk by 52%. Median rPFS had not been reached in the talazoparib group, compared with 45.8 months… -
FDA Clears New Blood Clot Removal System for PEOct 26, 2026 | Pulmonary Embolism The FDA has cleared to the Hēlo Thrombectomy System, a minimally invasive catheter device engineered to remove blood clots from pulmonary arteries in patients experiencing pulmonary embolism, according to… -
Embolism Treatment Developed at U-M Receives FDA ClearanceIllustrations of device // Video Newswise — Patients with persistent blood clots require frequent medical interventions just to survive. Yet despite this critical need, there have been few advancements in how these patients are treated… -
FDA Approves Talazoparib/Enzalutamide in HRR-Mutated Prostate CancerTHE COUNTDOWN IS ON The approval expands the combination’s use to patients with androgen pathway modulation–naive or –sensitive disease based on phase 3 TALAPRO-3 findings. 3D rendered medically accurate illustration of prostate cancer: ©…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions