Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Oct 31 · $338 today · $1.7M traded · $65.8K at stake · prices read 26 min ago

The odds

19%December 31

October 23<1%▼ 1
October 313%
November 308%▼ 1
December 3119%▲ 2

How the odds have moved

October 23: 2% on Oct 20, <1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
June 5	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$2.5K
June 12	<1%			0¢		$16.5K
June 19	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$13.7K
June 26	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$19.7K
June 30	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$57.3K
July 3	<1%			0¢		$3.6K
July 10	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$18.2K
July 17	<1%	▼ 5		0¢		$18.5K
July 24	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$18.3K
July 27	<1%			0¢		$1.4K
July 28	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$2.7K
July 29	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$3K
July 30	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$18.8K
July 31	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$92.5K
August 7	<1%			0¢		$149K
August 14	<1%	▼ 1		1¢		$246K
August 21	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$127K
August 31	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$347K
September 15	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$12.6K
September 30	<1%	▼ 17		0¢		$207K
October 9	<1%	▼ 4		1¢	$71.43	$21.7K
October 15	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$47.9K
October 23	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$17.5K
October 31	3%		2¢	3¢	$34.48	$181K
November 30	8%	▼ 1	6¢	10¢	$10.00	$10.2K
December 31	19%	▲ 2	12¢	25¢	$4.00	$8.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Gemini, Google AI, Google Gemini Pro Model

Search ›

Google AI Summaries Squeeze The Websites That Depend On Search TrafficNortheast Times · 11 h agoGoogle's AI search features have made it harder for online publishers to survive on search traffic alone, The Verge reported Sunday in its Stepback newsletter, written by Emma Roth. The change affects any reader who finds news through…
How to Track Your Brand in Google AI Overviews Without a Paid APIDEV Community · 23 h agoGoogle AI Overviews now answer a large share of commercial questions before any website gets a click. Business owners ask me the same thing every week: are we even in those answers? The honest problem is tooling. Most AI visibility…
Save up to $200 on Google Chromebooks — discover what's possible when you bring the power of Google AI to your ChromebookTom's Hardware · 28 h agoTom's Hardware Approved - Sponsored Offer Lighter on your backpack and wallet With a 0.78-inch profile and a 2.99-pound weight, the IdeaPad Slim 3 Chromebook is a portable device you can carry with you. The 14-inch IPS display with WUXGA…
Gemini 4 Argon is Here: 1M Output Tokens, Overnight Code Refactors, and Real-World SpeedupsDEV Community · 9 h agoGoogle just released gemini-4-argon in Google AI Studio, Vertex AI, and Antigravity. Instead of just generating code snippets, Argon is built to run multi-step engineering workflows from start to finish without losing the plot. What…
Is Google Preparing a Joint Release for Gemini 4 Flash and Carbon?NPowerUser · 13 h agoThe AI community thrives on subtle breadcrumbs, but when multiple independent signals align at once, the noise starts looking a lot like a pattern. Over the past few days, tech enthusiasts and developers tracking model rollouts have…
Convertion F45 Server to Thin XFS LVM Provisioning with Libvirt-Hooks based on BTRFS-XFS Setup ( Assisted by Google AI )lxer.com · 42 h agoConverting a server (such as a high-density virtualization platform) to Thin XFS LVM Provisioning with Libvirt-Hooks solves the fundamental performance bottlenecks and management complexities inherent in running virtual machines on top of…
Automate a boring task for $0 with the Google AI Studio free API tierDEV Community · 2 days agoGoogle AI Studio gives you a free Gemini API key with a generous free tier. No credit card. Here is the full path from zero to a working automation. No SDK needed. Plain curl works: gemini-2.5-flash-lite is the fastest model and has the…
Gemini 4 Argon Learns From Videosi-programmer.info · 6 h agoGoogle DeepMind robotics researchers have found a short cut to teaching robots new physical skills. Take video footage of a human performing the skill and ask Gemini 4 Argon to build a virtual simulation. Over the years we have seen…
Gemini 4 Argon: what the benchmarks show and when you can use itDEV Community · 7 h agoArgon is Google DeepMind's new frontier model, announced by Koray Kavukcuoglu, Google DeepMind's SVP and Chief AI Architect. The post lists three headline changes. Output length. Google says one response can now run to an "industry-leading…
Gemini 4 Argon API and Android NDK #2260: Google at two speedsDEV Community · 7 h agoOn October 12, developer francisdb filed Android NDK issue #2260 with a minimal C reproducer built with aarch64-linux-android30-clang: The disassembled ARM64 instructions revealed three execution paths chosen by the contents of the reject…
Google adds co-creation review flow and three study tools to Gemini NotebookDEV Community · 3 h agoOriginally published on ColdCaseTech. Disclosure: this post contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Then vs. Now (News report): Then: Google announced that Gemini Notebook now offers more creative…
Gemini On-Device - Generative AI For Robotsi-programmer.info · 6 h agoIn that same way Gemini can produce text, write poetry, summarize an article, write code, and generate images, it can also generate robot actions with Gemini Robotics. Now, the new Gemini Robotics On-Device model eliminates the need for a…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.7M

Today$338

This week$6.4K

At stake$65.8K

In the news48 headlines today, 607 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company320.21−1.24%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions