Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $261 today · $224K traded · $17.1K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

The odds

47%↑ 1540

Reaches 1,54047%
Reaches 1,55034%
Reaches 1,6009%
Reaches 1,6504%
Reaches 1,7003%

Already reached: ↑ 1510, ↑ 1520, ↑ 1530, ↑ 1500

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
✓ ↑ 1500	>99%	▲ 5	100¢	100¢		$33.8K
✓ ↑ 1510	>99%	▲ 14	100¢	100¢		$2.9K
✓ ↑ 1520	>99%		100¢	100¢		$61.3K
✓ ↑ 1530	>99%	▲ 66	100¢	100¢		$19K
↑ 1540	47%	▲ 10	31¢	63¢	$1.59	$7.2K
↑ 1550	34%	▲ 2	21¢	47¢	$2.13	$54.5K
↑ 1600	9%		6¢	13¢	$7.69	$26.8K
↑ 1650	4%		2¢	6¢	$16.95	$9.6K
↑ 1700	3%		2¢	5¢	$21.74	$9.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence, Overall Arena Score

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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$2.1Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T.

Reaches $1.5T91%
Reaches $1.75T69%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

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October 2712%▲ 2
October 295%▲ 5
October 314%▲ 4
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$224K

Today$261

This week$224K

At stake$17.1K

In the news95 headlines today, 1,499 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.