US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
64%October 22
- October 2264%
- October 2464%▼ 2
- October 2864%▼ 2
6 more
- October 3164%▼ 1
- November 864%▲ 1
- November 1564%
- November 2264%▼ 2
- November 3064%▼ 2
- December 3164%▼ 3
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Will Iran target Jordan by...?
The odds
36%October 31
- October 3136%▲ 14
How the odds have moved
October 31: 22% on Oct 20, 36% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 8 PM ETOctober 31: 22% → 36%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $9K | ||
| October 31 | 36% | ▲ 14 | 30¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | $19.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Jordan
Search ›- Iraq closes Iran crossings, shores up Jordan, Syria bordersBaghdad shut crossings with Iran this week, and the Kurdistan Region denied hosting Ukrainian drones, as Iraq moves to avoid being drawn into another round of fighting. Iraq is on edge over the prospect of renewed fighting with Iran after…
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Jordan Mason set to return in Week 7Yahoo Sports - Jordan Mason set to return in Week 7 Jordan Mason's Return Brings Much-Needed Changes to Vikings' RB Room in Week 7 Jordan Mason listed as questionable Jordan Mason able to practice in full Vikings Release Running Back Ahead… -
Rep Jim Jordan commends ‘common sense conservative’ running in tight Florida districtGOP congressional candidate Mike Beltran and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, discuss Republican momentum in Florida’s 14th district on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Rep Jim Jordan commends ‘common sense conservative’ running in tight Florida district GOP… -
Survivor of deadly attack on Jordan church describes people crawling for their livesThe Washington Post A survivor of the deadly attack on a church in Jordan has described a terrifying scene where people crawled for their lives JERUSALEM — A survivor of a deadly attack on a church in Jordan described people crawling for… -
How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and IsraelNPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks with Middle East Institute senior fellow Natan Sachs about striking Iran, developments in the West Bank, and elections in Israel and the U.S. How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and Israel NPR's… -
Is Jordan Mason Playing Today? (Injury Update, Betting Impact for Colts vs. Vikings in NFL Week 7)Minnesota Vikings running back Jordan Mason (thumb) has not played since Week 1 of the 2026 seaso, but he's expected to return on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. Mason is officially listed as questionable, but he ws activated off of… -
Latest news on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran — stories, videos, latest coveragePresident Trump said Iran was trying to drive up oil prices before the midterms by lying about ships hitting mines or being struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts tell CBS News geography, interceptor shortages and evolving… -
Jordan Smith Jr. Helped Off Court After Going Down In Exhibition Vs GonzagaUPDATE: Smith returned to the game with 5:53 remaining. FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas freshman guard Jordan Smith Jr. went down with an injury and was helped back to the locker room by UA athletic training staff during Saturday's exhibition vs… -
Powerful general in Iran emerges from hiding as Tehran prepares for Khamenei’s dayslong funeralGen. Ahmad Vahidi attended a meeting about the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and sat alongside the late supreme leader's casket, Iranian state media photos showed. Powerful general in Iran emerges from hiding as Tehran prepares for… -
Man with knife arrested near set of ‘Miami Vice ‘85’ film starring Michael B. JordanA man was arrested Friday night near the Brooklyn set of “Miami Vice ‘85,” the film starring Michael B. Jordan and Austin Butler. Alex Perez, 23, of Brooklyn, was arrested just after 11 p.m. on accusations that he displayed a knife during… -
Princeton star Jordan Hall makes commitment to Big Ten schoolPrinceton's star running back is headed to the Big Ten, but won't stay in Ohio. Jordan Hall announced his commitment to Penn State on Oct. 24, 2026, in a ceremony at Princeton High School. The three-star recruit in the class of 2027 also…
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
68%October 24
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions