Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

States & cities news

More news ›

Centrist champion for small business Mike Lawler is a far better vote than carpetbagging challenger Cait ConleyNew York Post · 14 h ago
Court papers reveal mayor's £2.7m interest in major rail schemeBBC News · 17 h ago
Pennsylvania one of the first states to require disclosures on AI-generated adsCBS News · 19 h ago
Parent's of Annunciation shooting victim say GOP gubernatorial candidate lied to themCBS News · 20 h ago
Trump Slams Mamdani Ban on NYC’s Horse-Drawn Carriages: ‘Great Tradition’Newsweek · 20 h ago
Boston City Council considers making list of city's worst landlordsCBS News · 20 h ago
The real reason ‘Rubber-stamp’ Raman wants more wildly expensive public toiletsCalifornia Post · 21 h ago
New York City Council passes bill to ban horse-drawn carriage rides within 2 yearsCBS News · 21 h ago

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.