Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages in 2026?
96%chance▼ 2
Install
How many DSA members will there be at the end of 2026?
The odds
155,500median
100,000230,000
Median 155,500Middle half 131,818 – 190,625
How the odds have moved
Median: 158,889 on Oct 20, 155,500 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 110,000 | 91% | ▲ 1 | 87¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | |
| Above 120,000 | 81% | ▲ 1 | 77¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | |
| Above 130,000 | 77% | ▲ 1 | 74¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 6.0K |
| Above 140,000 | 66% | ▲ 1 | 62¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 1.3K |
| Above 150,000 | 56% | ▲ 1 | 52¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 1.2K |
| Above 160,000 | 46% | ▲ 1 | 42¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 4.0K |
| Above 170,000 | 34% | ▲ 1 | 30¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 354 |
| Above 180,000 | 30% | ▲ 1 | 26¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 27.00 |
| Above 190,000 | 26% | ▲ 1 | 22¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 609 |
| Above 200,000 | 18% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 1.00 |
| Above 210,000 | 13% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | |
| Above 220,000 | 9% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions