Predictions › Politics odds Every World leaders market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.
% US Dec
769 open markets · $726K traded today Trending world leaders markets
Before Nov 1, 2026 2% ▲ 1 Before Dec 1, 2026 5% Before Jan 1, 2027 8% ▼ 1 Before Feb 1, 2027 9% ▲ 3 13 more Before Mar 1, 2027 14% Before Apr 1, 2027 20% ▼ 1 Before May 1, 2027 20% ▲ 4 Before Jun 1, 2027 26% ▼ 2 Before Jul 1, 2027 33% ▼ 3 Before Aug 1, 2027 33% ▲ 3 Before Sep 1, 2027 33% ▼ 2 Before Oct 1, 2027 38% Before Nov 1, 2027 41% Before Dec 1, 2027 41% ▼ 3 Before Jan 1, 2028 46% ▼ 2 Before Jul 1, 2028 49% ▼ 3 Before Jan 1, 2029 56% ▼ 6
Before January 21, 2029 24% ▲ 4 Before 2027 3%
Before January 20, 2029 14% ▼ 3 Before 2027 2%
Argentina 80% ▲ 4 Uruguay 78% ▲ 2 Peru 76% ▲ 1 Brazil 20% ▲ 1 8 more Mexico 17% ▼ 1 Portugal 16% ▼ 3 Jordan 10% Ukraine 9% ▼ 1 Philippines 8% ▼ 3 South Sudan 7% ▼ 2 Israel 5% ▼ 5 USA 5%
Before Jan 1, 2027 7% ▼ 1 Before Jan 1, 2028 22% Before Jan 20, 2029 39%
Belize 7% ▲ 1 Djibouti 6% Comoros 6% Saudi Arabia 5% ▼ 1 7 more Mauritania 5% Iran 5% ▼ 1 Maldives 5% Lebanon 4% ▼ 1 Syria 4% Indonesia 3% Oman 3%
Japan 17% ▲ 2 Germany 13% ▲ 1 Saudi Arabia 9% ▲ 1 Israel 9% ▲ 1 18 more North Korea 9% Venezuela 8% ▲ 1 Russia 7% ▼ 2 Denmark 7% ▲ 1 Italy 7% India 7% Norway 7% ▲ 1 Qatar 6% ▼ 1 Cuba 6% Mexico 5% Hungary 5% Vatican City 5% Pakistan 5% ▼ 1 Poland 4% Palestine 4% Ukraine 4% Canada 3% Taiwan 2%
160 230
Median 190.6 Middle half 186.4 – 199.3
Before Jan 1, 2027 2% Before Jan 1, 2028 21% ▼ 1 Before Jan 1, 2029 29% Before Jan 1, 2030 42% ▼ 4
140 230
Median 187.5 Middle half 175.7 – 202.2
Before Nov 1, 2026 13% ▼ 3 Before Jan 1, 2027 25% ▼ 2
Before Jan 2027 5% Before Jan 2028 19% ▼ 1 Before Jan 21, 2029 25%
India 98% ▲ 1 Switzerland 28% Qatar 25% ▼ 2 Cuba 21% ▼ 1 6 more Mexico 17% Ukraine 15% Poland 11% ▼ 1 Venezuela 10% ▼ 1 Oman 7% ▲ 1 Russia 5%
250 340
Median 291.2 Middle half 281.7 – 305.4
Before Dec 1, 2026 87% ▼ 5 Before Jan 1, 2027 93% ▼ 1
Delcy Rodríguez 92% ▲ 2 Nicolás Maduro 3% ▲ 1 Vladimir Padrino López 2% Jorge Rodríguez 2% ▲ 1 4 more María Corina Machado 2% Diosdado Cabello 1% Gustavo González López 1% Edmundo González Urrutia 1%
Before Dec 1, 2026 17% ▼ 7 Before Jan 1, 2027 34% Before Apr 1, 2027 62% ▲ 6
Before Jan 1, 2027 7% Before Jan 1, 2028 33% Before Jan 20, 2029 55% ▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 2027 14% ▼ 1 Before Jan 1, 2028 58% ▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 2027 5% ▼ 2 Before Apr 1, 2027 6% ▲ 2 Before Jul 1, 2027 9% ▼ 1 Before Oct 1, 2027 27% ▼ 1 1 more Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .