Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
186.0median
140230
Median 186.0Middle half 175.8 – 198.3
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Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
The odds
Nov 4, 2028even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 20277%▼ 6
- Before Jan 1, 202834%▲ 2
- Before Jan 20, 202954%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 7% on Oct 20, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7% | ▼ 6 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $13.33 | 14.1K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 34% | ▲ 2 | 30¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 276 |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 54% | ▲ 1 | 51¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 18.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Somaliland
Search ›-
Somaliland arrests 27 people in corruption investigations, auditor general saysHargeisa (HOL) — Somaliland authorities have arrested 27 people in connection with suspected corruption since President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro took office, Auditor General Muse Yusuf Idigaa announced Wednesday. Idigaa said the… -
Somalia condemns Netanyahu map showing Somaliland, Puntland separately from rest of countryMogadishu (HOL) — Somali federal government Tuesday condemned a geopolitical map displayed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a security briefing, accusing Israel of portraying the country as fragmented and undermining its… -
Somalia Says Somaliland Visa Row Ends 21 OctSomalia’s federal government said on Wednesday 21 October that the Somaliland visa row is over, after more than a year of clashes about electronic visas. Caasimada Online, a Mogadishu news site that reports in Somali, carried the… -
Somalia says e-visa dispute with Somaliland is resolvedMogadishu (Somalia Today) — Somalia’s federal aviation authority says it has reached an agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland over the operation of its contested electronic visa system. Ahmed Moallim Hassan, director-general of… -
Why Israeli recognition has been a double-edged sword for SomalilandLast year, Israel became the first country in the world to recognize the breakaway state of Somaliland as an independent country. The consequences are proving complex. At a foreign exchange stall in a bustling marketplace here in… -
Somaliland denies reaching new airspace agreement with Somali governmentWednesday October 21, 2026 Hargeisa (HOL) — Somaliland Minister of Civil Aviation and Airports Development, Fu’aad Ahmed Nuh, has denied that Somaliland reached a new agreement with Somalia’s federal government on airspace management… - China counters US position on breakaway African state with Red Sea navigation pledge days after Trump’s Somaliland remarksChina and Djibouti have reaffirmed Somalia’s territorial integrity and opposed international recognition of Somaliland’s independence, days after US President Donald Trump described the breakaway African territory as “a totally different…
- Somaliland Will Name an Airport for Trump, Open Its Port and Offer Its Minerals; It Wants One Thing BackSomaliland’s president has offered to put Donald Trump’s name on an airport.Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, commonly known by his nickname Irro, has floated renaming Berbera International Airport. The idea came after weeks of lobbying at…
- Somaliland endorses top UAE official for UN Secretary-GeneralLana Nusseibeh, who is reportedly emerging as a contender for the position, has referred to Iran as a ‘state sponsor of terrorism’ The breakaway state of Somaliland, recognized only by Israel, has endorsed the UN Secretary-General…
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The Moment Ethiopia Recognizes Somaliland, Al-Shabaab will Get a Free Ride: Ethiopian Ambassador to IsraelAmbassador Tesfaye argued that such a move would prompt the Somali government to demand the immediate withdrawal of Ethiopian troops currently participating in regional counterterrorism operations in Somalia, which would lead to a… -
Ethiopia’s Somaliland restraint is driven by fear, not respectAsked why Addis Ababa had not followed Israel in formally recognising Somaliland, Ethiopia’s ambassador to Israel, Tesfaye Yetayeh Anteneh, pointed to what his country stood to lose. “The moment, for example, Ethiopia recognises… -
Netanyahu map places Puntland, Somaliland in Israel-UAE orbitTel Aviv (Somalia Today) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu displayed a map at a national security presentation on Sunday showing Somalia’s Puntland and Somaliland regions as territories considered friendly by Israel and the…
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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 9, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%
- Before Mar 1, 202715%
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202720%▼ 3
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%▼ 1
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▲ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202849%
- Before Jul 1, 202856%▼ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.