Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
The odds
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.0 – 197.5
How the odds have moved
Median: 189.8 on Oct 20, 185.8 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150 | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 20.4K | |
| Above 160 | 95% | ▲ 1 | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 36.9K |
| Above 170 | 90% | ▲ 1 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 24.8K |
| Above 180 | 66% | ▲ 1 | 65¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 13.6K |
| Above 185 | 53% | ▼ 1 | 52¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 15.3K |
| Above 190 | 37% | ▼ 3 | 36¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 13.7K |
| Above 195 | 32% | ▼ 7 | 31¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 7.6K |
| Above 200 | 19% | ▲ 1 | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 4.9K |
| Above 205 | 8% | ▼ 2 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 5.6K |
| Above 210 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 18.0K |
| Above 220 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 20.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mandeb Strait
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Ethiopia Calls for Shared Red Sea SecurityETHIOPIA · RED SEA SECURITY Ethiopia’s intelligence chief says no handful of countries can keep the Red Sea safe alone. He spoke on Friday, 23 October, as a regional security forum opened in Bahir Dar. Ethiopia called for shared Red Sea… -
Eight regional, European countries call for dialogue to resolve conflictsIslamabad, Oct 24 (PTI) Eight regional and European countries called for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve conflicts, including the US-Iran hostilities and the Israel-Palestine issue, according to a joint statement issued on Saturday. The… -
The World’s Oil Reserves Just Got Handed a Stress Test: One Analyst Warns the Real Worry Isn’t the Price of Oil but the SupplyOil prices are nearly as high as they were at the start of the war with Iran, but one analyst argues the bigger worry is supply. Gulf flows have rebounded, yet a closure of Hormuz or the Bab al-Mandeb would squeeze reserves and send prices… -
Britain Deploys Royal Air Force to Support Saudi Monarchy Against Yemeni ResistancePrime Minister Andy Burham says the fighter jets are only there for “defensive purposes” while the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is facing monumental defeats against the Ansur Allah As the Yemeni resistance movement, the Ansur Allah, carries on… -
Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia call on Houthis to stop attacks on Saudi ArabiaThe foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia also emphasized that the Israeli occupation is the main source of instability in the region and beyond - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics & DiplomacyInto… -
Fidan to meet Yemeni FM as fighting threatens key shipping routesTurkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is scheduled to meet Yemen’s top diplomat, Afrah Abdulaziz Al-Zuba, in Istanbul on Saturday to discuss bilateral relations, efforts to end Yemen’s conflict and growing threats to international shipping… -
8-nation Istanbul talks urge diplomacy to quell Mideast conflictsForeign ministers from eight countries called for diplomatic solutions to escalating Middle East conflicts, warning that military confrontations and threats to key shipping routes could deepen humanitarian suffering and disrupt global… -
Middle East mayhem: Oil prices jump US$3 on Houthi attacks, oil spill, highest settlement since AprilTHE MIDDLE EAST (Reuters): Oil prices settled more than $3 higher on Friday night, their highest in nearly six months after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns over further disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East… -
China Uses Djibouti Outpost to Assert Itself on Houthi AttacksChina and Djibouti released a joint communique on Thursday supporting freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which are currently under threat from the Iran-backed Houthi insurgents of Yemen. The statement was issued… -
Iran-Backed Houthis Seize Strategic Port City in YemenThe Iran-backed Houthi rebel group has seized Yemen’s Red Sea port city of Mokha, marking its biggest territorial gain since a 2022 truce and bringing the group closer to a key maritime chokepoint used by global shipping, Houthi and Yemeni… -
Oil prices jump $3 on Houthi attacks, oil spill, highest settlement since AprilNEW YORK: Oil prices settled more than $3 higher on Friday, their highest in nearly six months after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns over further disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East, where UAE authorities… - Intense diplomacy ongoing as Egypt seeks to avert regional escalation: foreign ministry spokesmanZaki added in an interview with 'Al-Sharq' that Istanbul witnessed highly important meetings, including between the R4 group countries, namely Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, which he described as "like-minded" countries, and on…
Related markets
All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
293.4median
250340
Median 293.4Middle half 280.8 – 308.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.2median
160230
Median 197.2Middle half 189.8 – 202.9
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
17%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20268%▼ 4
- Before Jan 1, 202717%▼ 3
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
295median
250340
Median 295Middle half 285 – 306.0
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.