Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.3 – 197.5
Install
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
The odds
189.6median
140230
Median 189.6Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 189 on Oct 25, 189.6 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150 | 93% | ▼ 2 | 92¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 10.5K |
| Above 160 | 91% | 90¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 7.9K | |
| Above 170 | 82% | ▼ 3 | 81¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 4.7K |
| Above 180 | 66% | ▼ 1 | 65¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 944 |
| Above 185 | 56% | 56¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 2.1K | |
| Above 190 | 50% | ▲ 5 | 49¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | 2.1K |
| Above 195 | 38% | 37¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | ||
| Above 200 | 28% | 27¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | ||
| Above 205 | 19% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 1.00 |
| Above 210 | 8% | ▼ 2 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 5.8K |
| Above 220 | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 898 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mandeb Strait
Search ›-
Saudi Arabia intercepts 10 Houthi missiles as rebels threaten Riyadh airport after deadly attackSaudi Arabia said its air defences intercepted 10 ballistic missiles fired by Yemen's Houthi rebels towards the kingdom's southern region on Sunday, as the country faced a fresh wave of missile and drone attacks amid escalating regional… -
Syrian Govt Accuses ‘Outlaw Groups’ of Blocking Sweida-Damascus HighwayThe "outlaw groups", affiliated with Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri reportedly blocked around 100 employees from reaching their workplaces in northern Sweida on Wednesday and had previously prevented students from travelling… -
Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi missiles, drones as Yemen fighting continuesSaudi Arabia intercepted drones and missiles over Riyadh and southern parts of the country on Sunday as fighting with Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis continued, the Saudi-led coalition said. The coalition said two drones and a ballistic… -
Houthis Target 4 Saudi Airports and Yanbu After Sanaa RaidsYahya Saree announced on Telegram that Ansar Allah had “carried out seven military operations using ballistic missiles and drones” against Saudi oil facilities and airports, according to Apa.az and France 24. The claimed targets spanned… -
Eight Regional, European Countries Call For Dialogue To Resolve ConflictsPublished : October 24, 2026 at 9:01 PM IST Islamabad: Eight regional and European countries called for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve conflicts, including the US-Iran hostilities and the Israel-Palestine issue, according to a joint… - Saudis intercept Houthi drones, missiles from Yemen as conflict intensifiesSaudi Arabia intercepted drones and missiles over its capital, Riyadh, and southern areas on Sunday, the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said, as fighting with the Iran-backed Houthi terrorists persisted. The conflict has become an…
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Ethiopia Calls for Shared Red Sea SecurityETHIOPIA · RED SEA SECURITY Ethiopia’s intelligence chief says no handful of countries can keep the Red Sea safe alone. He spoke on Friday, 23 October, as a regional security forum opened in Bahir Dar. Ethiopia called for shared Red Sea… - Saudi Arabia intercepts drones and missiles as fighting with Yemen's Houthis continuesOct 25 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia intercepted drones and missiles over its capital Riyadh and southern areas on Sunday, the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said, as fighting with the Iran-aligned Houthis persisted. The conflict has become an…
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Riyadh airport to resume flights despite renewed Houthi threatsKing Khalid International Airport in Riyadh is preparing to restore domestic and international flight operations on Sunday following disruptions caused by missile and drone attacks launched by the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist group, the… -
Middle East mayhem: Oil prices jump US$3 on Houthi attacks, oil spill, highest settlement since AprilTHE MIDDLE EAST (Reuters): Oil prices settled more than $3 higher on Friday night, their highest in nearly six months after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns over further disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East… -
Oil Prices Nears Six-Month High as Houthis Intensify Attacks on SaudiOil prices went up by more than $3 on Friday, nearing their highest levels in six months after consistent attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia stoked concerns over further disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East. Brent crude… -
Fidan to meet Yemeni FM as fighting threatens key shipping routesTurkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is scheduled to meet Yemen’s top diplomat, Afrah Abdulaziz Al-Zuba, in Istanbul on Saturday to discuss bilateral relations, efforts to end Yemen’s conflict and growing threats to international shipping…
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All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
293.8median
250340
Median 293.8Middle half 280.8 – 308.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.5median
160230
Median 197.5Middle half 189.8 – 202.9
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 20266%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202717%▼ 1
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
15%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20265%▼ 7
- Before Jan 1, 202715%▼ 5
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
192.8median
160230
Median 192.8Middle half 185.7 – 202.7
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions