Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.6 – 200.8
Install
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
The odds
Mar 2, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 20266%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
- Before Feb 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202713%▼ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202717%▼ 1
- Before May 1, 202720%▲ 1
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%▲ 2
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
5 more
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202847%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202857%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2027: 41% on Oct 20, 41% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 15, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 1.1M | |||
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 4.1M | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 3.3M | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.9M | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.6M |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8% | 8¢ | 8¢ | $12.66 | 3.5M | |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 8% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 6.9K |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 13% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 1.8K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 17% | ▼ 1 | 16¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 844.6K |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 20% | ▲ 1 | 19¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 4.0K |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 25% | 24¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 1.2K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 33% | ▲ 2 | 32¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 1.6M |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 33% | 32¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 2.4K | |
| Before Sep 1, 2027 | 34% | 33¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 1.4K | |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 37% | 36¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 1.0K | |
| Before Nov 1, 2027 | 41% | 41¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 75.1K | |
| Before Dec 1, 2027 | 41% | 40¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 9.6K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 47% | ▼ 1 | 46¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 76.4K |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 57% | ▲ 2 | 55¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 45.4K |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 60% | 59¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 53.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Transit
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Trump says oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz surpass prewar levels with US escortsFox News Trump says oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz surpass prewar levels with US escorts President Donald Trump says maritime escorts helped reopen shipping lanes for non-Iranian oil exports while the blockade cut off Iran’s… -
Troubled waters: life during wartime for Iranians on the strait of HormuzDespite US-Israeli airstrikes and Tehran’s attacks on shipping, the waterway still has to provide a lifeline for those that live and work there Capt Farouq turns the wheel as he watches the ferry terminal of Bandar Abbas grow smaller, its… -
UN maritime chief warns Strait of Hormuz mine threat persistsFox News UN maritime chief warns Strait of Hormuz mine threat persists IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez says ships risk hitting mines in Strait of Hormuz as Iran's temporary route lacks international approval -
Sea mine crisis re-emerges in Strait of Hormuz as Tehran urges Washington to accept dealIMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez says ships risk hitting mines in Strait of Hormuz as Iran's temporary route lacks international approval Sea mines have resurfaced as a threat in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran claimed Oct.17 that… -
Iran Says 7 Oil Tankers Attacked in Strait of HormuzSeven oil tankers caught fire or were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz overnight after being hit by Iran or striking naval mines, Tehran said Thursday, a markedly high number as... Iran Says 7 Oil Tankers Attacked in Strait of Hormuz Seven… -
Iran says seven oil tankers damaged overnight in Strait of HormuzSeven oil tankers caught fire or were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz overnight after being hit by Iran or striking naval mines, Tehran said. With days before Israel’s close elections in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose… -
Iran sets 7 conditions for reopening Strait of Hormuz, resuming talks: OfficialOctober 22, 2026 at 4:14 pm Commercial vessels are seen anchored between Iran’s Qeshm and Larak islands amid disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran on September 11, 2026. [Fatemeh Bahrami – Anadolu Agency] Iran will… -
Iran Reports Seven Oil Tankers Damaged in Strait of HormuzSeven oil tankers were reportedly struck or damaged by naval mines overnight Thursday, according to Iranian state television, amid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's state television reported that seven oil tankers were… -
Iran Reports Seven Tankers Damaged in Strait of Hormuz IncidentsSeven oil tankers reported damaged in the Strait of Hormuz due to attacks or naval mines, according to Iran's state television. The incidents mark a significant escalation in the critical waterway. DUBAI, Oct 22: Iran's state television… -
Strait of Hormuz blockade is ‘key’ to maintaining economic pressure on Iran: Former Defense secretaryFormer Defense Secretary Mark Esper discusses the threat Iran-backed Houthis pose to the Middle East and the impact of the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on ‘America Reports.’ ... Strait of Hormuz blockade is ‘key’ to maintaining… -
Sultan of Oman begins state visit to Britain as Gulf state plays pivotal role in Strait of HormuzThe Washington Post LONDON — King Charles III will welcome Sultan Haitham bin Tarik of Oman to Windsor Castle on Tuesday at the start of a three-day state visit as Britain seeks to bolster a strategically important ally squeezed by both… -
Oil shipping through Strait of HormuzGray TV Oil shipping through Strait of Hormuz Trump heads to Iowa Thursday with new farm aid package Redistricting favors Republicans, it may not be enough
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions