Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Nov 3 · $17.1K today · $38.3K traded · $6.7K at stake · prices read 17 min ago

The odds

296.7median

250340

Median 296.7Middle half 283.9 – 308.3

How the odds have moved

Median: 293.4 on Oct 25, 296.7 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 260	95%	▲ 2	94¢	95¢	$1.05	19.0K
Above 270	91%	▲ 4	90¢	91¢	$1.10	11.0K
Above 280	81%	▲ 4	80¢	81¢	$1.23	7.5K
Above 290	67%	▲ 10	66¢	67¢	$1.49	5.2K
Above 300	42%	▲ 5	41¢	43¢	$2.33	1.7K
Above 310	22%	▼ 1	21¢	22¢	$4.55	504
Above 320	8%	▼ 2	7¢	8¢	$12.50	1.1K
Above 330	6%	▼ 1	5¢	6¢	$16.67	923

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Suez Canal

Search ›

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More shipping services expected to return to Suez Canalfreshplaza.com · 4 days agoAdm. Ossama Rabiee, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, met with Juan Pablo Richards, Regional Head for Southern Europe at Hapag-Lloyd, to discuss ways of strengthening cooperation. The meeting took place at the Authority's headquarters…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onIMF PortWatch

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 9:00 AM ET

Traded$38.3K (46,786 contracts)

Today$17.1K

This week$38.3K

At stake$6.7K

Followed here sinceOct 23, 2026

The rules

If the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 260 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions