Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.9 – 200.8
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Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
The odds
93%Delcy Rodríguez
- Delcy Rodríguez93%
- Vladimir Padrino López2%
- Jorge Rodríguez2%
- María Corina Machado2%
- Nicolás Maduro2%
- Diosdado Cabello1%
- Gustavo González López1%
- Edmundo González Urrutia1%
How the odds have moved
Delcy Rodríguez: 91% on Oct 20, 93% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 93% | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 15.8K | |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 2.6K | |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 2.7K | ||
| María Corina Machado | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 4.8K | |
| Nicolás Maduro | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 3.1K | ||
| Diosdado Cabello | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.7K | ||
| Gustavo González López | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.7K | ||
| Edmundo González Urrutia | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Venezuela, Maduro, Delcy Rodríguez
Search ›-
Delcy Rodriguez: Latest News and UpdatesThe latest news and top stories on Delcy Rodriguez, the interim president of Venezuela. Following the abduction of leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife in a US military operation on January 3, 2026, Rodriguez was sworn in as the country’s… -
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela from exile for first time since Maduro’s ousterNobel Prize-winning opposition leader María Corina Machado reemerged from exile in Venezuela on Sunday for the first time since late last year, when she fled due to fears about her safety. Machado, who had been banned from running for… -
Exiled Venezuelan opposition leader announces her returnNobel laureate María Corina Machado’s return after almost a year in exile is unlikely to please interim president Delcy Rodríguez The Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has announced she has returned to Venezuela, almost a… -
Opposition leader Machado returns to Venezuela from exileAfter more than 10 months in exile, Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado has returned home to a political landscape that has been reshaped by her ally the United States without her involvement. “I am here… -
Venezuela’s Acting Pres. Delcy Rodríguez Meets 2015 Assembly Delegations - teleSUR EnglishOctober 22, 2026 Hour: 11:50 pm The meeting presented the balance and details of the third cycle of conversations held in Caracas, a process that included six working sessions structured in two plenary sessions and fifteen meetings. On… -
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado makes surprise return home after nearly a year abroadVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado joins Rachel Campos-Duffy in Panama to warn Americans about the dangers of socialism ahead of the midterms. Machado shares a direct message to President Donald Trump, praising his… -
Does Delcy Rodríguez have any options?Some critics of the leftist government question the credibility of Rodríguez’s claim. Her version, however, makes perfect sense. Trump himself repeatedly made similar threats in public, though couched in more oblique language. And… -
Trump Finds Potential Election Matchup Between Delcy Rodríguez and María Corina Machado "Intriguing"Thursday, October 22, 2026 by Samantha Mendoza U.S. President Donald Trump has described the possibility of a presidential election face-off between Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, and opposition leader María Corina Machado… -
Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado returns after months in exileCARACAS, Venezuela — Opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado reappeared in Venezuela Sunday for the first time since December, about a month before the U.S. military deposed the country's then-President Nicolás Maduro… -
Venezuelan opposition leader María Machado returns after months in exileVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has returned home to a fraught political landscape after over 10 months in exile. "I am here. With you," Machado wrote on X on Sunday. Her ally, former presidential candidate Edmundo… -
Venezuelans in South Florida weigh Maria Corina Machado's return and what comes next for the countryOctober 25, 2026 / 8:11 PM EDT / CBS Miami Patrons at a Venezuelan restaurant in South Florida gathered Sunday to discuss news of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado's return to Venezuela, weighing questions about the country's future… -
Venezuela's opposition leader Machado returns after months in exile, as doubts over democracy deepenOpposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado reappeared in Venezuela Sunday for the first time since December, returning from exile as doubts about the country's democratic future — and the role of the U.S. — grow. It was her…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions