Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Andy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister? (Before Jan 2027)
The odds
41%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jan 1, 20275%▲ 1
- Before Apr 1, 20276%▲ 1
- Before Jul 1, 20279%▲ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202727%
- Before Jan 1, 202841%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 5% on Oct 20, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 8.2K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 12.8K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 8.7K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 9% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 6.5K |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 27% | 23¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 5.2K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 41% | 37¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 6.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Andy Burnham, Prime Minister
Search ›-
Andy Burnham says he has emergency stockpile of beans, soup and TwigletsPM’s revelation follows launch of advice for households to have enough water and food to get by in civil emergency Andy Burnham has stockpiles of beans, soup and Twiglets in case of a civil emergency, he has said, adding that a new… -
Jeremy Clarkson issues brutal 4-word verdict on Andy Burnham as Prime MinisterThe broadcaster laid into the PM in his column suggesting the Labour leader would be better suited to working on a local council. Jeremy Clarkson has laid into Andy Burnham, saying the Prime Minister is "out of his depth", claiming he'd be… -
Celebrity Gogglebox: Andy Burnham makes history as first Prime Minister on Channel 4 showCelebrity Gogglebox has enlisted some of the biggest names in entertainment for tonight's special episode – including Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Liverpool mayor, Steve Rotherham Andy Burnham will make history on Celebrity Gogglebox… -
What's in Andy Burnham's emergency stockpile?Matt Chorley brings you the who, what, where, why and when of British politics. If you've got urgent questions... then email [email protected] ... Use BBC.com or the new BBC App to listen to BBC podcasts, Radio 4 and the World Service… -
'Celebrity Gogglebox': Andy Burnham Joins Channel 4 Show For SU2CPlenty of Prime Ministers have been watched on Channel 4’s Gogglebox, but none have bedecked the famous sofas until now. Tomorrow, Andy Burnham will appear from 10 Downing Street on Gogglebox for Stand Up To Cancer sat alongside his old… -
Prime Minister Andy Burnham's Gogglebox debut and Prince William's Graham Norton appearance are lauded as 'peak British' by fans as they say 'THIS is primetime telly'In a night when much of the nation was holed up at home during Storm Austen, viewers were stunned on Friday to see two of the nation's most prominent figures dominating the primetime airwaves. Prime Minister Andy Burnham was among the… -
Prime Minister swaps dispatch box for GoggleboxAndy Burnham is joined by Liverpool City Region mayor Steve Rotheram on the show Andy Burnham is to star in a special edition of Channel 4 hit show Gogglebox. The prime minister will be joined by Liverpool City Region Mayor Steve Rotheram… -
Prime Minister Andy Burnham is joining Celebrity Gogglebox. Yes, reallyAndy Burnham will be on Celebrity Gogglebox (Channel 4) Prime Minister Andy Burnham is set to appear on Channel 4’s Celebrity Gogglebox for Stand Up To Cancer from 10 Downing Street – the first time a UK PM has joined the show. A teaser… -
Andy Burnham becomes first Prime Minister ever to join Celebrity GoggleboxAndy Burnham is set to appear on Celebrity Gogglebox for Stand Up To Cancer, becoming the first Prime Minister ever to appear on the Channel 4 show. The Labour leader, who became PM in July, was joined by “old friend” Steve Rotheram, the… - Andy Burnham vows UK will hit net zero target despite Jackdaw gasfield approvalPrime minister pledges his government’s commitment to address climate crisis saying ‘our determination is unwavering’ We will make the net-zero transition work for Britain – approving the Jackdaw gasfield is part of the plan | Andy Burnham…
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'He is not a serious Prime Minister!' Andy Burnham slammed after Celebrity Gogglebox announcementThe Makerfield MP will appear on the fan-favourite show - from inside No10 Downing Street WATCH NOW: Andy Burnham approves drilling in the North Sea Andy Burnham decision to become the first Prime Minister to join Celebrity Gogglebox has… -
Lowry painting, a favourite among UK prime ministers over the past 60 years, to return to No. 10 Downing Street under Andy BurnhamLancashire Fair, Good Friday, Daisy Nook (1946) has been hung in 10 Downing Street under every UK premier from Harold Wilson to Keir Starmer. It was only absent under Tony Blair. The painting comes from the Government Art Collection (GAC)…
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14 more
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- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
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19%Before Jan 1, 2027
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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.3 – 197.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions