Will Ohio's special Senate winner be sworn in on Dec 15? (Before Dec 16, 2026)

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Dec 15 · $2.7K traded · $1.7K at stake · prices read 77 min ago

The odds

64%chance▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 71% on Oct 20, 64% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 24, 9 PM ET69% → 64%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 64% ▲ 1 61¢ 66¢ $1.52 4.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ohio, Senate

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  • Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midtermsFox News · 12 h agoFox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on the closely watched Ohio Senate and governor races ahead of the midterm elections. Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midterms Fox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on…
  • Ohio Senate race tightens in final stretchFox News · 37 h agoFox News Ohio Senate race tightens in final stretch Ohio Sen. Jon Husted joins ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss early voting numbers, his reelection campaign strategy and the key issues shaping the midterm elections. Ohio Senate candidate Jon…
  • Ohio could decide control of the Senate. Its rural voters might decide the winnerNPR · 3 days agoChris Gibbs, a cattle farmer in rural Ohio, says he's been in a deficit for almost three years. Keren Carrión/NPR hide caption At the weekday farmers market in Athens, Ohio, colorful vegetables are on display for patrons to purchase…
  • Election 2026 Ohio SenateClinton Herald · 34 h agoClinton Herald Mike Ditka, the quintessential Chicago Bear and a Pro Football Hall of Famer, dies at 86 Explosion and fire erupt at Quaker Oats plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa; no injuries Amy Acton, Democratic candidate for governor of Ohio…
  • APTOPIX Election 2026 Ohio SenateTelegraphHerald.com · 32 h agoTelegraphHerald.com Former President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign rally for Democratic Ohio Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, in Cleveland. Dubuque leaders seek federal designation to spur downtown…
  • Rural voters have soured on Trump. In Ohio, that could decide the Senate electionNPR · 3 days agoNPR Rural voters have soured on Trump. In Ohio, that could decide the Senate election There are multiple toss-up races in Ohio, including a high profile contest for U.S. Senate. But if Democrats want to win the seat, they'll have to reach…
  • 9 US Senate races could determine control of the chamberFox News · 6 h agoThe Ben Shapiro Show’ host Ben Shapiro joins ‘One Nation’ to discuss nine U.S. Senate races that could determine control of the Senate, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the 2028 presidential election. 9 US Senate…
  • Iowa’s Senate rivals pitch independence from their partiesPOLITICO · 7 h agoAshley Hinson qualified her pledge to be Trump’s strongest ally, while Josh Turek praised the president’s border record. U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek speaks during a debate with his Republican opponent, Ashley Hinson, on Oct. 7, 2026…
  • Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed a ‘jihadist’Fox News · 11 h agoPresident Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his family’s alleged support for terrorist organizations and Trump’s characterization of El-Sayed as a ‘jihadist.’ Trump…
  • How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceNewsweek · 19 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in…
  • Blanche defends Trump-ordered lawsuit over Alaska Senate election certificationCNBC · 12 h agoThe lawsuit, filed last week, cites what it argues is likely voter confusion over the name Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher also on the ballot. The DOJ said confusion over the two Sullivans could help former Alaska Democratic Rep…
  • Paxton and Talarico on the campaign trail in tight Senate raceCBS News · 9 h agoCBS News Chicago Sunday 5:30pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions