Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Polymarket World › Russia & Ukraine Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $30.4K today · $30.5M traded · $7.3M at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

11%June 30, 2027

December 31, 20262%
June 30, 202711%

How the odds have moved

December 31, 2026: 2% on Oct 20, 2% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
July 31, 2026	<1%		0¢		$275K
August 31, 2026	<1%		0¢		$1.1M
September 30, 2026	<1%		0¢		$2M
December 31, 2026	2%	2¢	2¢	$43.48	$26.5M
June 30, 2027	11%	10¢	11¢	$9.09	$692K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky

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Ukrainian President Zelensky confirms access to Starshield has been restoredcnn.com · 28 h agoAfter a week of slow Starlink speeds hindering Ukrainian military operations, the Ukrainian defense ministry announced on Saturday that full access to the military grade internet service has been restored. Voter turnout is already high in…
Melania Trump's advisor reveals how she bridged Putin, Zelenskyy to broker frontline Ukraine truceFox News · 20 h agoMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss first lady Melania Trump's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Beckman details how the first lady successfully brokered a ceasefire in Oleshky, allowing…
Russia given first championships since Ukraine invasionBBC Sport · 81 min agoWeightlifting was first included as an Olympic sport in the 1896 Games in Athens Moscow will host the 2030 World Weightlifting Championships - the first time an Olympic federation has chosen to stage a global event in Russia since the…
Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire dealAl Jazeera · 13 h agoAl Jazeera Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire deal US President Donald Trump praised First Lady Melania Trump, saying she was ‘better than our professionals’ following her diplomatic efforts towards a localised…
Ukraine war latest: Zelensky supports resuming trilateral peace talks with US, Russia after Putin claims Kremlin readinessThe Kyiv Independent · 4 days agoKey developments on Oct. 21: Witkoff's visit to St. Petersburg follows his Oct. 20 meeting with Zelensky and European allies in Oslo to discuss peace proposals to pass along to the Kremlin. Witkoff described both the Oslo and St…
Russia Launches Deadly Missile Barrage on Ukraine Hours After Putin-US TalksNewsweek · 3 days agoOct 22, 2026 at 05:28 AM EDT Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Ukraine just hours after U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff called President Vladimir Putin a "humanitarian" in a face-to-face meeting. Ukraine's Air Force said…
Putin, citing genetics, claims Ukrainian land ‘is not their territory’The Washington Post · 2 days agoA first-time mother of the bride writes to our advice columnists: If she’s contributing money to her daughter’s upcoming nuptials … does she get any influence over whom they invite? Not much has been said about the wedding plans, the…
First Russian diesel tanker heads to New York after Trump's deal with Putin to lower fuel pricesFox Business · 18 h agoRetired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro discusses President Donald Trump's diesel deal with Russia as a tanker heads to the US on 'America Reports.' The first tanker with 40,000 tons of diesel left for New York from Russia earlier…
Zelensky celebrates as Ukraine hits Putin's war factory with British missile and Starlink returnsThe Mirror · 8 h agoUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is toasting a successful victory after his forceslanded a direct hit on Putin’s war factory using British missiles, according to reports. Video shared from the battlefield appears to show a major…
Massive Ukrainian drone attack hits shopping center in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, locals sayThe Kyiv Independent · 15 h agoHelp us keep bringing the truth to light, even when Russia turns the lights out. A massive swarm of Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian border region of Belgorod overnight on Oct. 25, according to local officials and eyewitness footage…
Zelensky: If you give something to Putin, he will want everythingCNN · 3 days agoCNN Zelensky: If you give something to Putin, he will want everything Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to Christiane Amanpour from Kyiv about his relationship with President Trump and impact of the U.S. diesel deal with Russia.
Ukraine blasts Russian missile-parts plant as drones ground flights in MoscowNew York Post · 25 h agoUkraine hit a key Russian plant that makes components for Moscow’s missiles as a drone swarm disrupted air travel across the Russian capital, grounding flights and forcing an evacuation at a skyscraper housing several government…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$30.5M

Today$30.4K

This week$822K

At stake$7.3M

In the news711 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions