Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

Polymarket World › Russia & Ukraine Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $199K today · $898K traded · $168K at stake · prices read 7 min ago

The odds

Oct 19, 2026even chance by

October 17<1%▼ 4
October 2096%▲ 9
October 2196%▲ 13
October 2296%▲ 7
October 2396%▲ 14
October 2496%▲ 16
October 2596%▲ 14
October 2696%▲ 8
October 2796%▲ 8
October 2896%▼ 4
October 2996%▲ 4
October 3096%

1 more

October 3196%▲ 2

How the odds have moved

October 20: 81% on Oct 20, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 20, 11 PM ETOctober 20: 81% → 88%
- Witkoff heads to Russia for Putin talks as Zelenskyy insists 'nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine'CNBC · 6 days ago
- US envoy Witkoff lands in Russia for talks with Vladimir Putin about Ukraine – Europe livethe Guardian · 6 days ago
- Why Putin flourishes, and Zelensky falters, with TrumpWashington Examiner · 7 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
✓ October 1	>99%	▲ 48	100¢	100¢		$550
✓ October 2	>99%	▲ 49	100¢	100¢		$749
✓ October 3	>99%		100¢	100¢		$4.4K
✓ October 4	>99%	▲ 9	100¢	100¢		$74.5K
✓ October 5	>99%	▲ 6	99¢	100¢		$8.6K
✓ October 6	>99%	▲ 6	100¢	100¢		$7.2K
✓ October 7	>99%	▲ 12	100¢	100¢		$5.3K
✓ October 8	>99%	▲ 11	100¢	100¢		$3.7K
✓ October 9	>99%	▲ 2	93¢	100¢		$7.3K
✓ October 10	>99%	▲ 5	100¢	100¢		$2.6K
✓ October 11	>99%	▲ 7	100¢	100¢		$2K
✓ October 12	>99%	▲ 5	100¢	100¢		$75.9K
✓ October 13	>99%	▲ 9	100¢	100¢		$7.4K
✓ October 14	>99%	▲ 5	100¢	100¢		$74.4K
✓ October 15	>99%	▲ 4	100¢	100¢		$58.7K
✓ October 16	>99%	▲ 5	98¢	98¢	$1.02	$12K
October 17	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$159K
✓ October 18	>99%	▲ 15	100¢	100¢		$43.4K
✓ October 19	>99%	▲ 12	100¢	100¢		$29.9K
October 20	96%	▲ 9	100¢	100¢		$32.4K
October 21	96%	▲ 13	100¢	100¢		$38.2K
October 22	96%	▲ 7	100¢	100¢		$25.3K
October 23	96%	▲ 14	91¢	98¢	$1.02	$21.6K
October 24	96%	▲ 16	100¢	100¢		$20.3K
October 25	96%	▲ 14	100¢	100¢		$24.2K
October 26	96%	▲ 8	100¢	100¢		$28.2K
October 27	96%	▲ 8	100¢	100¢		$4.8K
October 28	96%	▼ 4	89¢	94¢	$1.06	$1.7K
October 29	96%	▲ 4	84¢	89¢	$1.12	$14.4K
October 30	96%		83¢	94¢	$1.06	$651
October 31	96%	▲ 2	85¢	95¢	$1.05	$1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky

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Russia, Ukraine begin Oleshky ceasefire but keep up strikes elsewhereNew York Post · 7 h agoRussia and Ukraine have begun a regional ceasefire to allow the start of a humanitarian effort in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, both sides said on Tuesday, ‌but they continue strikes elsewhere, including the Ukrainian capital of…
Ceasefire negotiated by Melania Trump holds in Russia-occupied Ukrainian cityFox News · 3 h agoMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss first lady Melania Trump's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Beckman details how the first lady successfully brokered a ceasefire in Oleshky, allowing…
Zelensky Adviser Slams Musk Over Claims Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsNewsweek · 22 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 09:20 AM EDT A top Ukrainian official has hit back at claims from SpaceX chief Elon Musk that Kyiv's military used the commercial Starlink satellite network for offensive drone strikes against Russian forces. Ukraine said…
Local Russia-Ukraine truce brokered by Melania Trump takes effect amid strikesCNBC · 5 h agoA local Russia-Ukraine ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump has taken effect in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, even as overnight strikes continued elsewhere, including Kyiv. Local Russia-Ukraine truce brokered by Melania Trump takes…
Melania Trump-brokered local ceasefire begins as Russia continues attacks on UkraineCNBC · 5 h agoAs a ceasefire brokered by First Lady Melania Trump took effect in a city in southern Ukraine, Russia continued pounding Ukraine's cities overnight. The local ceasefire, due to last until Saturday in Russia-occupied Oleshky near the…
Killer Russian missile strike as Putin targets university and Zelensky pleads for NATO helpDaily Mirror · 5 h agoRussia launched waves of missiles and drones at Kyiv overnight, hitting a university campus, killing one person and leaving at least 15 more injured. It means Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine has killed at least four…
Melania Trump-brokered one-city ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine takes effectCNN · 11 h agoA localized ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the occupied city of Oleshky that First Lady Melania Trump helped to broker has now gone into effect, officials on both sides said Tuesday. Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine’s parliament…
Russia launches 280 drones at Ukraine as local ceasefire begins in Oleshky – Europe livethe Guardian · 6 h agoVolodymyr Zelenskyy says 16 ballistic missiles were also launched overnight despite localised truce in Russian-occupied town Russia and Ukraine have started a localised ceasefire to allow for ⁠a humanitarian operation to begin in the…
Why Zelensky Should GoNewsweek · 2 h agoOct 27, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Before the Oval Office meeting of February 2025 blew up on camera, there was a question about clothes. Why, a reporter asked Volodymyr Zelensky, wasn’t he wearing a suit? He would wear "a costume," Ukraine’s…
Map shows Ukraine's battlefield advances threatening key Russian supply linesNewsweek · 19 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 12:54 PM EDT Ukrainian forces are making slow battlefield gains that might threaten Russia's ability to supply its troops, it has been reported, as a map shows the state of part of the front line. One Ukrainian military…
Putin insists on Russia’s interests in Ukraine peace talks with Nordic leadersenglish.nv.ua · 3 h agoRussian dictator Vladimir Putin discussed prospects for lasting peace in Ukraine and security in Northern Europe during a phone call with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, according to a…
Localized Russia-Ukraine ceasefire takes effect in Oleshky in deal brokered by Melania TrumpThe Washington Post · 14 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. MYKOLAIV, Ukraine — A…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$898K

Today$199K

This week$151K

At stake$168K

In the news604 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and ar

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions