Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%
- November 30>99%▲ 11
- December 31>99%▲ 7
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NATO x Russia military clash by...?
The odds
14%December 31
- October 312%
- November 153%▼ 3
- November 308%▼ 2
- December 3114%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
October 31: 7% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETOctober 31: 18% → 2%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | <1% | 0¢ | $63K | |||
| March 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $539K | |||
| June 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.2M | |||
| August 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $2.1M | |||
| October 31 | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | $4.2M | |
| November 15 | 3% | ▼ 3 | 3¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | $357K |
| November 30 | 8% | ▼ 2 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $129K |
| December 31 | 14% | ▼ 2 | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | $3.5M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky
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Zelensky Adviser Slams Musk Over Claims Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsOct 26, 2026 at 09:20 AM EDT A top Ukrainian official has hit back at claims from SpaceX chief Elon Musk that Kyiv's military used the commercial Starlink satellite network for offensive drone strikes against Russian forces. Ukraine said… -
Putin’s War on Abortion Meets His War in UkraineOct 27, 2026 at 08:58 AM EDT President Vladimir Putin is desperate for Russian women to have more babies. Though abortion remains legal nationally, Russian authorities have waged war against it, banning "child-free" advocacy, pressuring… -
Zelensky Reveals Massive Russian Barrage Amid Musk’s Starshield RestrictionOct 25, 2026 at 02:19 PM EDT Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched thousands of attacks this past week before Elon Musk’s SpaceX restored its Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service in the country… -
Russia, Ukraine begin Oleshky ceasefire but keep up strikes elsewhereRussia and Ukraine have begun a regional ceasefire to allow the start of a humanitarian effort in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, both sides said on Tuesday, but they continue strikes elsewhere, including the Ukrainian capital of… -
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S… -
Ceasefire negotiated by Melania Trump holds in Russia-occupied Ukrainian cityMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss first lady Melania Trump's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Beckman details how the first lady successfully brokered a ceasefire in Oleshky, allowing… -
Map shows Ukraine's battlefield advances threatening key Russian supply linesOct 26, 2026 at 12:54 PM EDT Ukrainian forces are making slow battlefield gains that might threaten Russia's ability to supply its troops, it has been reported, as a map shows the state of part of the front line. One Ukrainian military… -
Russia says it will open humanitarian corridor to Ukrainian townRussia says it will open a humanitarian corridor to the occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky, where people have been eating weeds and pickles to survive while trapped by minefields, shelling and drones. Russia says it will open humanitarian… -
Local Russia-Ukraine truce brokered by Melania Trump takes effect amid strikesA local Russia-Ukraine ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump has taken effect in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, even as overnight strikes continued elsewhere, including Kyiv. Local Russia-Ukraine truce brokered by Melania Trump takes… -
Melania Trump-brokered local ceasefire begins as Russia continues attacks on UkraineAs a ceasefire brokered by First Lady Melania Trump took effect in a city in southern Ukraine, Russia continued pounding Ukraine's cities overnight. The local ceasefire, due to last until Saturday in Russia-occupied Oleshky near the… -
Melania Trump-brokered one-city ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine takes effectA localized ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the occupied city of Oleshky that First Lady Melania Trump helped to broker has now gone into effect, officials on both sides said Tuesday. Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine’s parliament… -
Killer Russian missile strike as Putin targets university and Zelensky pleads for NATO helpRussia launched waves of missiles and drones at Kyiv overnight, hitting a university campus, killing one person and leaving at least 15 more injured. It means Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine has killed at least four…
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Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
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Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions