Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)
51.3median
44.556.5
Median 51.3Middle half 47.8 – 54.1
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How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)
The odds
51.9median
44.552.5
Median 51.9Middle half 50.0 – 51.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 51.6 on Oct 20, 51.9 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 45 | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | 691.4K | |
| 45 | 1% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 424.3K |
| 46 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | 433.3K | |
| 47 | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $28.57 | 485.5K | |
| 48 | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | 399.0K | |
| 49 | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $15.87 | 433.6K | |
| 50 | 12% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 421.7K |
| 51 | 10% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 427.7K | |
| 52 | 22% | ▲ 1 | 22¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 1.1M |
| Above 52 | 37% | ▼ 2 | 38¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 1.7M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate, Midterms
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Kansas Senate race: Democrat welcomes Trump as economic concerns drive midterm votersFox News Kansas Senate race: Democrat welcomes Trump as economic concerns drive midterm voters Democrat Adam Hamilton welcomes President Donald Trump to Kansas as affordability tops midterm concerns. Fox Business' Lou Basenese weighs in on… -
Map Shows Republican Chances of Losing Senate Two Weeks Before MidtermsOct 19, 2026 at 06:23 PM EDT Two weeks before the midterm elections, the race ratings, forecasting models and most public polls are pointing the same way: Republicans are at greater risk of losing the Senate than at any point this cycle… -
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Democrats CampaignPresident Donald Trump is campaigning for Republican candidates in South Carolina as Democrats expand their efforts into traditionally red states and make affordability a central issue ahead of Election Day. President Donald Trump is… -
Democrats jump into Mississippi Senate raceSenate Democrats’ top super PAC announced Tuesday it is launching a new ad campaign in the Mississippi Senate race, as Democrats seek inroads in Republican-leaning states to try to flip the Senate majority. Senate Majority PAC announced a… -
Maine Democrats fret over Troy Jackson’s guarded Senate campaignWashington Examiner BANGOR, Maine — Hope Brogunier was visibly exasperated on Friday after watching Troy Jackson onstage for his final debate against Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). She was a die-hard Graham Platner supporter and still reeling… -
New fake polling scandal riles Democrats ahead of midterm electionsWashington Examiner Another fake polling scandal has hit less than two weeks before the midterm elections, ripping open old wounds about the Michigan Democratic Senate primary and renewing skepticism about pollsters as they increasingly… -
Top forecaster shifts two Senate races in the deep South towards DemocratsCNN Top forecaster shifts two Senate races in the deep South towards Democrats The Cook Political Report just shifted two Senate races in the Deep South - Mississippi and South Carolina - toward the Democrats. Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor… -
The Economy Election: Key Senate races and top issues for voters in the midtermsVeda Partners' Henrietta Treyz discusses how affordability, healthcare, higher costs associated with the Iran war, and President Trump's energy deal with Russia are playing with voters in Alaska, Kansas and Texas. The Economy Election: Key… -
Mike Bloomberg spent $80M to boost Democrats in midterms: NYTMike Bloomberg spent $80 million in September and October to help Democrats regain majority control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, The New York Times reported Tuesday, citing his team. Shortly after The… - Cook moves Mississippi, South Carolina Senate races toward DemocratsThree prominent Latin American political leaders have endorsed Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Florida) in recent weeks, prompting criticism from some Democrats who describe the international support as foreign interference in a U.S…
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Senate Democrats launch first ad in Mississippi as their midterm optimism spreads in the South“Senate Majority PAC has been watching this race closely, and it is clear Colom is running a competitive race that has put Hyde-Smith on her heels,” group spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement. With just two weeks to go in the… -
As midterms loom, Democrats learn to speak a new language: American“I’m a border security Democrat.” With five words at a CNN and Jubilee Town Hall last week, Texas Senate candidate James Talarico sought to dodge the stigma of the Biden administration’s failure to secure the southern border. One way to do…
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- R-House, D-Senate1%
Maine Senate winner? (2026)
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.